Air-Sea Interactions in Tropical Cyclones Workshop




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НазваниеAir-Sea Interactions in Tropical Cyclones Workshop
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A. Forecaster Overviews:



08:20 – 08:50 Naomi Surgi: Operational Modeling at NCEP

08:50 – 09:20 Hendrik Tolman: Wave Modeling at NCEP

09:20 – 09:50 Carlos Lozano: Ocean Modeling at NCEP

09:50 – 10:20 BREAK

10:20 10:50 John Derber: Data Assimilation at NCEP

10:50 – 11:20 Isaac Ginis: Coupled Modeling at URI/NCEP


11:20 – 12:00 Discussion/Assignment of Break Out Groups


12:00 – 01:30 LUNCH/Informal Discussion


01:30 – 03:30 Break Out Groups 1/2

03:30 – 04:00 BREAK

04:00 – 05:30 Plenary Discussion/Chair Reports

05:30 Adjourn


Wednesday, May 25th

B. Research Overviews:



08:30 – 09:00 Nick Shay: Upper Ocean Observations

09:00 – 09:30 Gary Barnes: Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations

09:30 – 10:00 Daniel Jacob: Ocean Modeling

10:00 – 10:30 BREAK

10:30 11:00 Chris Fairall: Sea Spray Parameterization Schemes

11:00 – 11:45 Discussion/Charge of the Break Out Groups


11:40 – 12:00 James Girton: EM-APEX Floats


12:00 – 01:30 LUNCH/Informal Discussion


01:30 – 01:50 Eric Terrill: ARGO Floats

01:50 – 03:30 Break Out Groups 1/2

03:30 – 03:45 BREAK

03:45 – 04:30 Plenary Discussion/Chair Reports

04:45 Adjourn


Appendix B: Breakout Group Questions:


Session 1:


Where is the air-sea community on observing and modeling the oceanic and coupled response to tropical cyclones? What is state of the art in areas of air-sea interaction/boundary layer processes and upper ocean physics? What promising technologies are on the horizon? Will they be available over the next 2 to 5 years?


How can we maximize recently acquired data sets such as ONR-CBLAST, NSF/ NOAA Isidore/Lili, HFP, MMS Georges data sets?


What are relevant time/space scales that models need to be resolved relative to intensity change?

What is the impact of oceanic coupling on forecasting the atmospheric structure and intensity?


How do we improve initialization schemes? How important are positive feedback regimes such as the Gulf Stream, Loop Current on storm intensity and structure?


Can we use some of the work from GODAE for assimilation of satellite, drifter and float data?


What observations are needed to improve mixing parameterizations? What about wave coupling to the OML and ABL?


Session 2:


What is the appropriate mix of observations needed to improve the ocean and air-sea boundary layer

processes in oceanic or coupled models?

What metric(s) are needed to be implemented for consistent assessment of model(s) performance?

For example showing intensity changes from models is enough for a validation? How do we implement data and metrics in near-real time for forecasting needs?


What new real-time experimental plans need to be developed to support model forecasts? For example, sampling scenarios may differ over the Loop Current than the subtropical front in the North Atlantic.


Do we follow the life-cycle of one storm, or observe two storms under differing oceanic conditions each year? Will this be enough statistics to really improve the models?


How do we maximize use of GOOS float and ship-of-opportunity data? Will NDBC upgrades be useful? What about Coastal Ocean Observing Systems?


Do we rely on moored instrumentation? Or do we integrate time series from floats/drifters with snapshots from expendable sensors from aircraft?


Where do we see satellite remote sensing support going? What type of data will be useful in supporting experimental plans and data assimilation in models?
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