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Like mathematical economics, econometrics is something economists do rather than a special area of interest. Econometrics refers to the study of empirical data by statistical methods, the purpose of which is the testing of hypotheses and the estimation of relationships suggested by economic theory. Whereas mathematical economics considers the purely theoretical aspects of economic analysis, econometrics attempts to falsify theories that are expressed in explicit mathematical terms. But frequently the two go together.
The classic technique for estimating an economic relationship is that of "least squares," which is a method of fitting a trend line to a scatter of observations that minimizes the square of the deviations of the observed points from the line. To take a simple example: the Keynesian theory assumes that consumers' expenditures depend principally on income; one may interpret this to mean that consumption depends only on income and then test the hypothesis by trying to fit a trend line to a series of observations of income and consumption over a period of time. In so doing, one is really saying that the observations that fall to either side of the line are due either to errors in measuring the variables or to errors in specifying the relationship between consumption and income. It is essential to the method of least squares that these "errors" be randomly distributed or at any rate distributed in known ways. When this condition is violated, least squares estimates are unreliable. It is sometimes difficult to tell with economic data just how the errors are randomly distributed, and it is precisely for this reason that an econometrician is needed rather than an ordinary statistician.
A still more significant trend in recent econometrics is the tendency to move from single-equation estimates (such as the relationship between consumption and income) to systems of simultaneous equations. While consumption depends on income, income also depends on consumption; this kind of interdependence requires two equations rather than one. More generally, most economic variables are the result of demand and supply forces that simultaneously determine quantities and prices. To estimate a demand curve for butter from a single-equation regression (by relating the price of butter to the quantities of butter consumed, the incomes of consumers, and the prices of near substitutes for butter) is likely to produce a biassed answer because the price of butter is also influenced by supply conditions in the dairy industry. This creates the so-called identification problem, namely, the question of whether it is possible to identify a demand curve or a supply curve
from observed price-quantity data. The use of simultaneous equation models to estimate economic relationships is by now perhaps the best way of distinguishing econometrics from economic statistics.
The foregoing discussion covers only nine major branches of economics. There are many other fields in economics, including economic history, comparative economic systems, business cycles, economic forecasting, national income accounting, managerial economics, business finance, marketing, the economics of natural resources, economic geography, consumer economics, and regional
Growth and development
The study of economic growth and development is not a single branch of economics but falls, in fact, into two quite different fields. The two fields — "growth" and "development"— employ different methods of analysis and are indeed addressed to two distinct types of inquiry. Development economics is easy to describe. It is one of the three major subfields of economics, the other two being microeconomics and macroeconomics. Development economics resembles economic history in that it seeks to explain the changes that take place in economic systems with the passage of time.
The subject of economic growth is not so easy to characterize. It is the most technically demanding field in the whole of modern economics, impossible to grasp for anyone who lacks differential calculus. Its focus is the properties of equilibrium paths, rather than equilibrium states. One makes a model of the economy and puts it into motion, requiring that the time paths described by the variables be self-sustaining in the sense that they continue to be related to each other in certain characteristic ways. Then one can investigate the way economics might approach and reach these steady-state growth paths from given starting points. Beautiful and frequently surprising theorems have emerged from this experience, but as yet there are no really testable implications nor even definite insights into
how economies grow.
Growth theory began with the work of Roy Harrod in England and Evsey Domar in the United States. Their joint product has been known ever since as the Harrod-Domar model. Keynes had shown that new investment has a multiplicative effect on income and that the increased income generates extra savings to match the extra investment, without which the higher income level could not be sustained. One may think of this as being repeated from period to period, remembering that investment, apart from raising income disproportionately, also generates the capacity to produce more output that cannot be sold unless there is more demand,
that is, more consumption and more investment. That is all there is to the model. It contains one behavioral condition — that people tend to save a certain proportion of extra income, a tendency that can be measured. It contains one technical condition — that investment generates additional output, a fact that can be established. And it contains one equilibrium condition — that planned saving must equal planned investment in every period if the income level of the period is to be sustained. Given these three conditions, the model generates a time path of income and even indicates what will happen if income falls off the path
More complex models have since been built, incorporating different saving ratios for different groups in the population, technical conditions for each industry, definite assumptions about the character of technical progress in the economy, monetary and financial equations, and much more.
Like monetary and international economics, labour economics is an old economic speciality. It gets its raison d'etre from the peculiarities of labour as a commodity. Labour itself is not bought and sold; rather, its services are hired and rented out. But since people cannot be disassociated from their services, various nonmonetary considerations play a role in the sale of labour services as contrasted with the sale of machine time or the rental of land. Yet, the bulk of the literature in labour economics was until recently concerned solely with the demand side of the labour market. Wages, the textbooks all said, were determined by the "marginal productivity of labour," that is, by the relationships of production and by consumer demand. If the supply of labour came into the picture at all, it was merely to allow for the presence of trade unions; unions could only raise wages by limiting the supply of labour.
After a long period of neglect, the supply side of the labour market began, in the 20th century, to attract the attention of economists. First, attention shifted from the individual worker to the household as a supplier of labour services; the increasing tendency of married women to enter the labour force and the wide disparities and fluctuations observed in the rate that females participate in a labour force drew attention to the fact that an individual's decision to supply labour is not independent of the size, age structure, and asset holdings of the household to which he or she belongs. Second, the new concept of "human capital" — that people make capital investments in their children and in themselves by incurring the costs of education and training, the costs of searching for better job opportunities, and the costs of migration to other labour markets — has served as a unifying explanation of the diverse activities of households in labour markets. In this way, capital theory has become the dominant analytical tool of the labour economists,
replacing or supplementing the traditional theory of consumer behaviour. The economics of training and education, the economics of information, the economics of migration, the economics of health, and the economics of poverty are some of the by-products of this new perspective. A field that was at one time regarded as rather cut-and-dried has taken on new vitality.
Labour economics, old or new, has always regarded the explanation of wages as its principal task, including the factors determining the general level of wages in an economy and the reasons for wage differentials between industries and occupations. Wages are influenced by trade unions; the impact of their activities is of increased importance at a time when most governments manage the economy with one eye on the unemployment statistics. The prewar fears of chronic unemployment gave way to the postwar fears of chronic inflation at or near levels of full employment. In response to this a vast literature sprang up after 1945 analyzing the inflationary pressures stemming from both the supply side and the demand side of labour markets. Whether prices were being pushed up by the labour unions ("cost push") or pulled up by excess purchasing power ("demand pull") became the issues in this long debate on inflation, a controversy that is, of course, intimately related to the quarrels in monetary economics mentioned earlier.
One of the oldest, widely accepted functions of government is control over the supply of money. The dramatic effects of changes in the quantity of money on the level of prices and the volume of economic activity were recognized and thoroughly analyzed in the 18th century, and monetary economics has ever since constituted one of the principal branches of economics. In the 19th century a complex and somewhat crudely formulated tradition grew up known as the "quantity theory of money," which held that any change in the supply of money can only be absorbed by variations in the general level of prices (the purchasing power of money). In consequence, prices will tend to change proportionately with the quantity of money in circulation. As the growth of fiat paper money gave governments increasingly effective control over the stock of circulating media, the quantity theory of money supplied an apparently simple rationale for the management of the economy: all that was needed to prevent inflation or deflation was to vary the quantity of money in circulation inversely with the level of prices.
One of the targets of Keynes's attack on traditional thinking in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money was this quantity theory of money. Keynes produced a different theory of the demand for money that implied that the impact of a change in the stock of money on the level of national income is weak and at best indirect; the effect on prices is virtually nil, he maintained, at least in
economies with heavy unemployment such as prevailed in the 1930s. He put his emphasis instead on government budgetary and tax policy and direct control of investment. As a consequence, economists lost faith in monetary management and came to regard monetary policy as more or less ineffective in controlling the volume of economic activity.
In the 1960s there was a remarkable revival of the older view, at least among a small but growing school of American monetary economists. They accepted much of Keynesian economics but argued that the effects of fiscal policy are unreliable unless the quantity of money is regulated at the same time. They refurbished the quantity theory of money and tested the new version on a variety of data for different countries and for different time periods, leading to the broad conclusion that the quantity of money does matter.
In the late 20th century the controversy was still raging. It is notable that this debate, unlike previous debates in the history of monetary economics, was characterized by disputes over empirical findings — that is, it was focussed on the testable character of different monetary theories rather than on the manner of their formulation. Progress was made slower by the political overtones of the controversy: in some countries, belief in the efficacy of monetary policy had become a kind of litmus test of political conservatism. Nevertheless, a reconciliation between Keynesians and quantity theorists needed only some agreement as to the magnitude of monetary forces and the degree of stability of the demand for money. Monetary economics seemed at last to be coming of age as an empirical discipline.
Many transportation innovations occurred because of the needs of the military. Nevertheless, advances in vehicle designs and infrastructure (such as bridges and roads) were soon applied to trade and commerce. The Roman road system, originally created to move troops quickly and efficiently throughout the empire, soon created a massive economic market centered on Rome. The European explorers of the 15th and 16th centuries were originally seeking new paths to the riches of the Orient when they happened on the New World. The trillion-dollar international trade business of today relies entirely on a reliable system of global transportation to meet demand and provide customers all over the world with goods and services
International trade routes connect different countries. These routes reflect the economic interdependence of many nations of the world. Many countries are dependent on other countries for natural resources, finished goods such as automobiles and electronics, and parts for products assembled locally. Many of the world's largest trade partners, such as the United States, Canada, Japan, Mexico,
and Europe, are connected with numerous transportation services and travel routes. In Asia, Japan has strong maritime trade relations with Southeast Asian countries in order to exchange natural resources for manufactured goods. The U.S. ports of New Orleans, Louisiana, and Miami, Florida, are major ports of entry for trade with Latin American nations.
Treaties and international agreements among countries are used to protect international shipping and travel. These agreements have related to issues such as vessel standardization, allowable ports of entry in a nation, customs procedures, tariffs that can be applied to certain commodities, and rights of passage through international waters. A recent example of such an agreement is the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was signed in 1992 by the governments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Among other actions, NAFTA eliminated many tariffs, allowed Mexican trucks to travel into the United States, provided safety and regulatory standards for trucks and buses, and permitted U.S. and Canadian investment on a limited basis in Mexican transportation firms. Similar trade agreements will continue to characterize international transportation.
Besides the economic benefits associated with trade, there are many other indirect economic benefits related to transportation. More than 9.5 million workers are employed in transportation-related industries in the United States, and the transportation-related portion of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2000 was $314 billion out of a total GDP of $9.9 trillion. Aerospace, naval, and automobile manufacturers are responsible for a large amount of that figure, as are the industries that supply these manufacturers, such as the steel, rubber, petroleum, and electronics industries
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It is the prediction of future economic activity and developments. Forecasting of this nature has grown rapidly since the 1930s, largely in response to the increasing unpredictability of the economic situation, a greater involvement of governments in economic affairs, which requires the preparation of economic plans and projections, and rapid improvement in the quality and coverage of economic statistics and forecasting techniques. There is a vast array of forecasts available, ranging from short-term predictions for specific economic variables (such as interest rates) or of demand for individual products (such as steel or automobiles) to medium- and long-term forecasts of the economy as a whole. Despite their lack of certainty, such forecasts are widely used in business, government, and private affairs to help in formulating policies, strategies, legislation, and long-term plans.
A useful distinction can be made between macro- and micro-economic forecasts. Macroeconomic forecasts are designed to predict the future course of the entire economy or of specific broad economic variables, whereas microeconomic forecasting is designed to project the likely development of particular economic sectors such as one industry, commodity, or firm. The best known and most widely used form of macroeconomic forecast is that of national income or gross national product (GNP). This predicts, in numerical terms, the major components of a country's economic activity — private consumption, government expenditure, private and public investment, and the balance of exports and imports. All countries devote significant resources to this type of forecasting, typically on a one- to five-year basis. These forecasts are used for a number of different purposes. Governments use them to determine future economic strategy and to predict other variables of the economy such as the likely level of inflation, industrial output, employment, etc. Based on such a forecast, the effects of various proposed government actions (a cut in taxation or an increase in government expenditure, for example) can be tested before official policy is finalized.
Macroeconomic forecasts are also used outside government as a basis for producing more detailed projections of the main components of the economy and in the preparation of microeconomic forecasts. By studying the overall forecast of private consumption, for example, a retailer might, by referring to established patterns of spending, predict the amount that is likely to be spent on foodstuffs and nonfood products and then, working in the microeconomic forecasting area, attempt to determine future expenditures in specific product categories. Similarly, an automobile manufacturer will attempt to predict demand for his product by looking at the predicted level of and trends in disposable incomes and consumption and predictions of interest and exchange rates. He will also forecast production costs from the trend of wage increases and inflation. In general, most microeconomic forecasting starts with some forecast or assumption about the economy as a whole that is then modified or analyzed into its components in light of special factors and considerations applicable to a particular product, industry, or other concern.
Forecasts range from one month to 10 years or more. However, largely owing to the economic shocks of the last 20 years (e.g., the quadrupling of oil prices in 1972), there has been a trend away from highly numerical long-term forecasts in favour of indications of the broad direction of economic developments, based on both statistical evidence and more or less subjective judgments on such basic aspects of the economy as population growth, technological progress, and social changes. A set of long-term forecasts may be made to indicate the likely outcomes of several different but equally plausible assumptions in a technique often called scenario building.
The techniques of economic forecasting have developed rapidly in recent decades. This in part reflects the growing understanding of the ways in which numerous economic variables affect each other. Equally important reasons are the better availability of good statistics and the development of computer methods for processing large amounts of data. Computer capacity has made possible the practical development of mathematical models of the economy through which it is possible to explore the relationships between the key determinants of the economic system with a speed and to a degree of detail that were not possible before. Most governments and large forecasting organizations use computers in this technique known as econometric forecasting.
Supply and demand
Supply and demand in economics is relationship between the quantity that producers wish to sell at various prices and the quantity of a commodity that consumers wish to buy.
The quantity of a commodity demanded can be seen to depend on the price of that commodity, the prices of all other commodities, the incomes of consumers, and their tastes. In economic analysis, the last three factors are often held constant; the analysis then involves examining the relationship between various prices and the maximum quantity that would potentially be purchased at each of these prices. These price-quantity combinations may be plotted on a curve, known as a demand curve.
The quantity of a commodity that is available in the market depends not only on the price obtainable for the commodity but also on the prices of substitutable products, the techniques of production, and the availability and costs of labour and other factors of production. In analyzing supply in the short run, one usually assumes that all but the price are constant in order to observe the relationship between various prices and the quantity potentially offered by suppliers at each price. It is the function of a market to equate demand and supply through the price mechanism. If buyers wish to purchase more of a commodity than is available at the prevailing price, they will tend to bid the price up. If they wish to purchase less than is available at the prevailing price, suppliers will bid prices down. Thus, there is a tendency toward an equilibrium price, at which the quantity demanded is just equal to the quantity supplied.
As the price rises, the quantity offered usually increases, and the willingness of consumers to buy an article normally declines, but these changes are not necessarily proportional. The measure of the responsiveness of supply and demand to changes in price is their elasticity. Elasticity is calculated as the ratio of the percentage change in the quantity demanded or supplied to the percentage change
in price. Thus, if the price of a commodity decreases by 10 percent, and the sales of it consequently increase by 20 percent, the elasticity of demand for that commodity is said to be 2.The demand for products that have good, readily available substitutes is likely to be elastic, because consumers can easily replace one good with another if its price rises. The demand for a product may be inelastic if there are no close substitutes and if expenditures on the product comprise only a small part of the consumer's income. Firms faced with relatively inelastic demands for their products may increase their total revenue by raising prices; those with elastic demands cannot
Although the concept of elasticity is most often associated with consumers' demand for a product, it can be applied to other variables. It may be used to measure the responsiveness of the quantity demanded by consumers to changes in their income. Another type of elasticity, known as the cross-elasticity of demand, measures the response in consumers' demand for one product to changes in the price of another. The cross-elasticity is likely to be positive if the products are substitutes for one another, because an increase in the price of one will result in an increase in demand for the other. Supply-and-demand analysis may be applied to markets for final goods and services or to markets for labour, capital, and other factors of production as well. It can be applied at the level of the firm, the industry, or the entire economy. At the last level, though, the analysis is of quite a different nature. The total demand for all goods and services by all sectors of the economy, for example, determines the aggregate income in the economy; income thus depends on production, and a circular relationship exists between production, income, and final demand. The same may be said of the relationship between the supply of factors of production and the compensation offered, as in the case of unemployed workers who (theoretically) would willingly accept work at the going wage if it were available.
Market is a means by which the exchange of goods and services takes place as a result of buyers and sellers being in contact with one another, either directly or through mediating agents or institutions.
Markets in the most literal and immediate sense are places in which things are bought and sold. In the modern industrial system, however, the market is not a place; it has expanded to include the whole geographical area in which sellers compete with each other for customers. Alfred Marshall, whose Principles of Economics (first published in 1890) was for long an authority for English-speaking economists, based his definition of the market on that of the French economist A. Cournot:
Economists understand by the term Market, not any particular market place in which things are bought and sold, but the whole of any region in which buyers and sellers are in such free intercourse with one another that the prices of the same goods tend to equality easily and quickly.
To this Marshall added:
The more nearly perfect a market is, the stronger is the tendency for the same price to be paid for the same thing at the same time in all parts of the market.
The concept of the market as defined above has to do primarily with more or less standardized commodities, for example, wool or automobiles. The word market is also used in contexts such as the market for real estate or for old masters; and there is the "labour market," although a contract to work for a certain wage differs from a sale of goods. There is a connecting idea in all of these various usages — namely, the interplay of supply and demand
Most markets consist of groups of intermediaries between the first seller of a commodity and the final buyer. There are all kinds of intermediaries, from the brokers in the great produce exchanges down to the village grocer. They may be mere dealers with no equipment but a telephone, or they may provide storage and perform important services of grading, packaging, and so on. In general, the function of a market is to collect products from scattered sources and channel them to scattered outlets. From the point of view of the seller, dealers channel the demand for his product; from the point of view of the buyer, they bring supplies within his reach.
There are two main types of markets for products, in which the forces of supply and demand operate quite differently, with some overlapping and borderline cases. In the first, the producer offers his goods and takes whatever price they will command; in the second, the producer sets his price and sells as much as the market will take. In addition, along with the growth of trade in goods, there has been a proliferation of financial markets, including securities exchanges and money markets.
It is the amount of money that has to be paid to acquire a given product. Insofar as the amount people are prepared to pay for a product represents its value, price is also a measure of value.
It follows from the definition just stated that prices perform an economic function of major significance. So long as they are not artificially controlled, prices provide an economic mechanism by which goods and services are distributed among the large number of people desiring them. They also act as indicators of the strength of demand for different products and enable producers to respond accordingly.
This system is known as the price mechanism and is based on the principle that only by allowing prices to move freely will the supply of any given commodity match demand. If supply is excessive, prices will be low and production will be reduced; this will cause prices to rise until there is a balance of demand and supply. In the same way, if supply is inadequate, prices will be high, leading to an increase in production that in turn will lead to a reduction in prices until both supply and demand are in equilibrium.
In fact, this function of prices may be analyzed into three separate functions. First, prices determine what goods are to be produced and in what quantities; second, they determine how the goods are to be produced; and third, they determine who will get the goods. The goods so produced and distributed may be consumer items, services, labour, or other salable commodities. In each case, an increase in demand will lead to the price being bid up, which will induce producers to supply more; a decrease in demand will have the reverse effect. The price system provides a simple scale by which competing demands may be weighed by every consumer or producer.
Of course, a totally free and unfettered price mechanism does not exist in practice. Even in the relatively free market economies of the developed Western world there are all kinds of distortions — arising out of monopolies, government interference, and other conditions — the effect of which reduces the efficiency of price as a determinant of supply and demand. In centrally planned economies, the price mechanism may be supplanted by centralized governmental control for political and social reasons. Attempts to operate an economy without a price mechanism usually result in surpluses of unwanted goods, shortages of desired products, black markets, and slow, erratic, or no economic growth.
The second marketing-mix element is price. Ordinarily companies determine a price by gauging the quality or performance level of the offer and then selecting a price that reflects how the market values its level of quality. However, marketers also are aware that price can send a message to a customer about the product's presumed quality level. A Mercedes-Benz vehicle is generally considered to be a high-quality automobile, and it therefore can command a high price in the marketplace. But, even if the manufacturer could price its cars competitively with economy cars, it might not do so, knowing that the lower price might communicate lower quality. On the other hand, in order to gain market share, some companies have moved to."more for the same" or "the same for less" pricing, which means offering prices that are consistently lower than those of their competitors. This kind of discount pricing has caused firms in such industries as airlines and
pharmaceuticals (which used to charge a price premium based on their past brand strength and reputation) to significantly reevaluate their marketing strategies.
In order to understand target customers, certain questions must be answered: Who constitutes the market segment? What do they buy and why? And how, when, and where do they buy? Knowing who constitutes the market segment is not simply a matter of knowing who uses a product. Often, individuals other than the user may participate in or influence a purchasing decision. Several individuals may play various roles in the decision-making process. For instance, in the decision to purchase an automobile for a small family business, the son may be the initiator, the daughter may be an influencer, the wife may be the decider, the purchasing manager may be the buyer, and the husband may be the user. In other words, the son may read in a magazine that businesses can save money and decrease tax liability by owning or leasing company transportation. He may therefore initiate the product search process by raising this issue at a weekly business meeting. However, the son may not be the best-qualified to gather and process information about automobiles, because the daughter worked for several years in the auto industry before joining the family business. Although the daughter's expertise and research efforts may influence the process, she may not be the key decision maker. The mother, by virtue of her position in the business and in the family, may make the final decision about which car to purchase. However, the family uncle may have good negotiation skills, and he may be the purchasing agent. Thus, he will go to different car dealerships in order to buy the chosen car at the best possible price. Finally, despite the involvement of all these individuals in the purchase process, none of them may actually drive the car. It may be purchased so that the father may use it for his frequent sales calls. In other instances, an individual may handle more than one of these purchasing functions and may even be responsible for all of them. The key is that a marketer must recognize that different people have different influences on the purchase decision, and these factors must be taken into account in crafting a marketing strategy.
In addition to knowing to whom the marketing efforts are targeted, it is important to know which products target customers tend to purchase and why they do so. Customers do not purchase "things" as much as they purchase services or benefits to satisfy needs. For instance, a conventional oven allows users to cook and heat food. Microwave oven manufacturers recognized that this need could be fulfilled — and done so more quickly—with a technology other than conventional heating. By focusing on needs rather than on products, these companies were able to gain a significant share in the food cooking and heating market.
Knowledge of when, where, and how purchases are made is also useful. A furniture store whose target customers tend to make major purchases in the spring may send its mailings at the beginning of this season. A food vendor may set up a stand near the door of a busy office complex so that employees must pass the stand on their way to lunch. And a jeweler who knows that customers prefer to pay with credit cards may ensure that all major credit cards are accepted at the store. In other cases, marketers who understand specifics about buying habits and preferences also may try to alter them. Thus, a remotely situated wholesale store may use deeply discounted prices to lure customers away from the more conveniently located shopping malls.
Customers can be divided into two categories: consumer customers, who purchase goods and services for use by themselves and by those with whom they live; and business customers, who purchase goods and services for use by the organization for which they work. Although there are a number of similarities between the purchasing approaches of each type of customer, there are important differences as well.
It is the sum of activities involved in directing the flow of goods and services from producers to consumers.
Marketing's principal function is to promote and facilitate exchange. Through marketing, individuals and groups obtain what they need and want by exchanging products and services with other parties. Such a process can occur only when there are at least two parties, each of whom has something to offer. In addition, exchange cannot occur unless the parties are able to communicate about and to deliver what they offer. Marketing is not a coercive process: all parties must be free to accept or reject what others are offering. So defined, marketing is distinguished from other modes of obtaining desired goods, such as through self-production, begging, theft, or force.
Marketing is not confined to any particular type of economy, because goods must be exchanged and therefore marketed in all economies and societies except perhaps in the most primitive. Furthermore, marketing is not a function that is limited to profit-oriented business; even such institutions as hospitals, schools, and museums engage in some forms of marketing. Within the broad scope of marketing, merchandising is concerned more specifically with promoting the sale of goods and services to consumers (i.e., retailing) and hence is more characteristic of free-market economies.
Based on these criteria, marketing can take a variety of forms: it can be a set of functions, a department within an organization, a managerial process, a managerial philosophy, and a social process.
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