High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis (hilp) R. Rotter, 29 July 2011 Mercyhurst College, Erie pa advanced Analytic Techniques Course




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High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis (HILP)


R. Rotter, 29 July 2011

Mercyhurst College, Erie PA

Advanced Analytic Techniques Course

Purpose


The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the value of the analytical technique of High-Impact/Low-Probability analysis based on the technique complexity, perceived strengths and weaknesses, breadth and depth of the results, accuracy, and difficulty. This will then be applied to a personal test case for further evaluation of the technique.


Complexity will be evaluated by: 1)Number of steps involved, 2) Number of analytical tools required, 3) Amount of external input required. This criterion is selected as an evaluative tool because it encompasses a broad range of considerations when selecting an analytical technique such as the time required for execution, the analyst training required, and resource availability.


Perceived strengths and weaknesses are evaluated by: 1) Personal evaluation once the technique has been executed, 2) Expert opinions about the strengths and weaknesses of the technique. This criterion is selected because it includes the input of the analyst and of experts who have published peer reviewed literature on HILP analysis.


The breadth and depth of results is evaluated by: 1) Ease and accuracy for consideration of multiple variables. This criterion is included because it is important to have an analytical tool that allows for multiple variables when analyzing a HILP event.


Accuracy is evaluated by: 1) Assessing technique against results from completed technique, 2) Assessing technique results against data from events such as Aum Shinrikyo, Amerithrax, the H1N1 pandemic, Amerithrax, and/or table top exercises like Dark Winter. This criterion is included because it is important to have a measure of the accuracy of the results achieved by HILP analysis.


Difficulty is evaluated by: 1) Analyst experience of using HILP analysis. This criterion is included to provide analyst a determination of the ease of use of HILP analysis.


The analytical question in this test case is:

"How will the world be impacted if a terrorist organization uses a biological weapon and what is the key evidence that terrorist organizations might be preparing such an attack?"

Criteria chosen to evaluate HILP:


Criteria

Weight

Criteria Evaluation

Complexity

35

*Number of steps involved

*Number of analytical tools required

*Amount of external input required

Perceived strengths weaknesses

20

*Personal evaluation once the technique has been executed

*Expert opinions about the strengths and weaknesses of the technique

Breadth/depth of results

20

*Ease and accuracy for consideration of multiple variables

Accuracy

15

*Evaluate technique against results from completed technique

*Evaluate technique using Aum Shinrikyo, Amerithrax, and/or a table top exercise like Dark Winter

Difficulty

10

*Personal evaluation based on user experience



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