Asian Summer Monsoon Variability and Climate Change




НазваниеAsian Summer Monsoon Variability and Climate Change
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September 23, 2004


IPCC analysts


  1. Steve Nerem, sea level nerem@colorado.edu


Analysis/Assessment of Sea Level Change Predicted by the IPCC Global Climate Models

R. Steven Nerem, University of Colorado at Boulder

We propose to assess the sea level change predictions from each of the IPCC global climate models. We plan to compare observations of sea level change from satellite altimeter missions such as TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason, as well as tide gauge measurements, to sea level change predicted from the models. We have a time series of changes in global sea level from a sea level reconstruction that employs satellite altimetry and tide gauge data over 1930-2004. We plan to make comparisons of both global mean sea level, as well as the observed geographical patterns of sea level change over this time period. Sea level change can be a powerful constraint and corroboration on the performance of the climate models, and thus we feel we can make an important contribution to the IPCC assessment.


2. H. Annamalai

H. Annamalai

IPRC/SOEST

University of Hawaii

1680 East West Road, POST Bldg 401

Honolulu HI 96822

Ph: (808) 956 5646


  1. Asian Summer Monsoon Variability and Climate Change



H. Annamalai1, K. Hamilton1, K. R. Sperber2, and K. Rupakumar3


1International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI USA

2Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA USA

3Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India.


We will be investigating the robustness of the changes in the mean monsoon precipitation and circulation in the perturbed vs. control integrations, and we will assess the relationship between ENSO and monsoon at interannual and decadal timescales in the suite of models. Additionally, we will examine the changes to the statistical properties of sub-seasonal variability such as (a) monsoon lows and depressions, and (b) 10-20 days and 30-50 days intraseasonal oscillations over the Asian monsoon region. We require monthly and daily variables of outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (OLR), precipitation, SST, 850 and 200hPa winds.


3. Akio Kitoh

Akio Kitoh, Dr.
Climate Research Department
Meteorological Research Institute
1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
Phone: +81-29-853-8594 (direct) or 8681 (lab)
Fax: +81-29-855-2552
Email: kitoh@mri-jma.go.jp
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Impact of Climate Change on River Runoff

in Asia-Monsoon Region


A. Kitoh1, T. Oki2, D. Nohara1, M. Hosaka1 and K. Kamiguchi1


1. Meteorological Research Institute, Japan

2. Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Japan


Population explosion and economic development in many countries of Asia-monsoon region have already encountered many water problems as floods and droughts associated with the monsoon rainfall variability. The prediction of the precipitation and the river flow accompanied with the climate change is an important source of information for the flood control and the irrigation for the Asian people. The purpose of the proposed research is to estimate the impact of the climate change on the river flow for the major rivers (e.g., the Mekong, Ganges and Euphrates) in Asia-monsoon region. The amount of the future river flow is estimated by the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) that calculates the lateral water movement on the global scale in river channels over the continents. The TRIP model requires the daily runoff dataset by the multi-model results for the IPCC. The additional analysis for the mechanism study requires the monthly mean pressure level dataset (e.g., temperature, wind, geopotential height, humidity and surface pressure). To compare the future river runoff with present, the variability of the intensity and frequency of the floods and droughts are estimated.


Baiu-Changma-Meiyu rain and its Future Change


A. Kitoh and T. Uchiyama


Meteorological Research Institute, Japan


Baiu-Changma-Meiyu is a rainy period in early summer over East Asia (Japan, Korea and China) and its variability and change is one of major focus in climate change projection in these areas. Until now, there are many studies on changes in seasonal mean climate, but few studies are available on changes on duration of rainy season. Uchiyama and Kitoh (2004) analyzed the MRI-CGCM2 data at 2071-2100 of SRES-A2 scenario and showed a delay in Baiu rain withdrawal and an increased amount of total Baiu rainfall, but little change in onset and intensity. The purpose of the proposed research is to investigate the change of intensity as well as seasonality (onset, withdrawal and duration) of East Asian rainy season and associated circulation changes.

The main data to be analyzed is the daily precipitation. Additional data needed are the sea-level pressure, SST and/or 2m temperature and column integrated moisture flux (daily preferable but if not available 5-day or monthly mean will be used instead).


5. Tatsuo Motoi tmotoi@mri-jma.go.jp


Topic: Ocean Response in Asia-Australia Monsoon Region to Increase of

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration in Climate Models

Person: Tatsuo Motoi (MRI/JMA, Japan)

One paragraph description: Please find the attached file which is one

paragraph description including the informations about the person,

subject, objective and data required.


Ocean Response in Asia-Australia Monsoon Region to Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration in Climate Models


T. Motoi


Meteorological Research Institute, Japan


The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has rapidly increased and is still increasing due to mainly human activities. The change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration perturbs the climate system including the ocean. The ocean responds to the perturbed forcings, such as anomalous momentum (wind stress), heat and water fluxes at the surface, through the ocean-atmosphere-land surface interactions. The ocean conditions have larger seasonal variations in Asia-Australia monsoon region and affect significantly on life of both marine and continental species, including the human life, through energy and water cycles in the climate system. The purpose of the proposed research is to investigate the mechanism of response of the ocean in Asia-Australia monsoon region to increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by multi-model analyses. The datasets required for this research are monthly mean momentum, heat and water fluxes at the sea surface, and ocean velocity, temperature and salinity fields. The changes in seasonal variations of the fluxes in Asia-Australia monsoon region are analyzed as perturbations of forcings. The relations between the changes in fluxes and those in ocean circulation, temperature and salinity fields are investigated to detect the feedback processes which dominantly work in the climate changes. The evolutions of alteration in seasonal variation of thermocline depth and coastal-upwelling intensity are examined as key factors in the response processes.


  • Jonathan Gregory Jonathan Gregory j.m.gregory@reading.ac.uk


I would like to use the AR4 surface air temperature and precipitation fields

for off-line glacier and ice-sheet models, in order to make projections of

the land ice contribution sea level rise for the AR4. This would be added to

the sea-level fields directly calculated from T and S changes in the models.

I expect that this will be one of my responsibilities as an LA of the

projections chapter. Obviously the methods that will be used are not yet known.


6. Hiroaki Ueda hueda@sakura.cc.tsukuba.ac.jp


Future change of diabatic heating in the Asian summer monsoon

Hiroaki Ueda

University of Tsukuba

  Diabatic heating, mainly consists of latent heating and sensible heat supply from the land surface, has an important role in the establishment and maintenance of the monsoon. Until now, there are many studies on the heating processes related to the seasonal evolution of the Asian summer monsoon. Ueda et al. (2003, J. Climate) has revealed that pre-monsoon heating in the western part of the Tibetan Plateau exhibits hybrid nature of <wetc and <dryc processes. Ishizaki and Ueda (2004) analyzed the heat and moisture budget over the Indochina Peninsula and obtained presence of condensation heating as well as the sensible heat supply from the land surface. Recently, Ueda and Kawamura (2004, Int. J. Climatol.) has indicated that the springtime anomalous tropical heat source over the Indian Ocean, relevant to a cold episode of the El Ni撲, can affect midlatitude atmosphere through direct heat-induced response to the atmosphere and cause to change ensuing Asian summer monsoon. However, few studies are available on longer time-scale. Thus, the purpose of the proposed research is to evaluate the change of heat and moisture budget, especially over the Asiatic landmass in boreal summer. The main data to be used is monthly mean 3-D atmosphere data (air temperature, horizontal wind, specific humidity, omega, geopotential height). Additional data required for the heat and moisture budget analysis are monthly net down/up-ward short/long- wave radiation flux and precipitation.


--

Hiroaki Ueda, Dr

Division of Geoenvironmental Sciences,

Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences,

University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan

Tel: +81-29-853-4756; Fax: 81-29-853-6879

E-mail: hueda@sakura.cc.tsukuba.ac.jp


7. Dr. Hiroshi L. Tanaka

Division of Geoenvironmental Science

Life and Environmental Science

University of Tsukuba

Tsukuba 305-8572 JAPAN

T+81-29-853-4502; F+81-29-853-6879

tanaka@sakura.cc.tsukuba.ac.jp


Analysis of Intensity Changes of Walker, Monsoon, and Hadley Circulations

by the Global Warming in the 21st Century


H. L. TANAKA1, Yasushi WATARAI 1, and Akio KITOH2


1. Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan

2. Meteorological Research Institute, Japan


In this study, we attempt to divide global divergent field at the upper troposphere in contributions from the Hadley, Walker, and monsoon circulations, following the method by Tanaka et al. (2004). The data used in this study are monthly mean wind at 200 hPa level. According to our previous study for the MRI CGCM with a gradual increase in CO2 at a compound rate of 1 %/yr for 150 years, it is found that the Hadley circulation intensifies by 40 %, and the monsoon circulation decays by 20% in boreal summer when the global warming takes places in the 21st century. We propose to conduct the same analysis for various climate model predictions under the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the monthly mean velocity potential field at 200 hPa level. The analysis would show how the intensity of Walker, monsoon, and Hadley circulation will change after the global warming.


Comparative Global Spectral Energetics Analysis by Saltzman Scheme

for Various Climate Model Predictions in 21 Century


H. L. TANAKA, Yasushi WATARAI, and Koji TERASAKI

Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan


The understanding of the scale interaction between the meso-scale and global-scale phenomena is an important research subject in the general circulation of the atmosphere as well as the study of climate change. Global spectral energetics analysis introduced by Saltzman can resolve the complicated scale interactions in the wavenumber domain from meso to planetary scales. We have conducted comparative spectral energetics analyses for NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25 reanalyses (Tanaka et al. 2004). In the proposed study, we plan to conduct the comparative spectral energetics analysis for various climate model predictions under the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, using four times daily upper air data before and after the global warming. The analysis would show how the intensity of the general circulation would change by the global warming in the 21st century.


8. Vikram Mehta vikram@crces.org


The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, its variability, and its impacts on global climate in the AR4 global climate models


Investigators: Vikram M. Mehta, CRCES; Robert Iacovazzi, Jr., CRCES; Boyin Huang, CRCES; Thomas Delworth, NOAA/GFDL; Amita Mehta, NASA/GSFC-UMBC
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