This report reflects the views of the consultants and not necessarily those of the commissioning agencies




НазваниеThis report reflects the views of the consultants and not necessarily those of the commissioning agencies
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LONDON OFFICE
POLICY REVIEW 2001



Geoff Marsh

David Chippendale

London Property Research


July 2002


This report reflects the views of the consultants and not necessarily those of the commissioning agencies.


Table of Contents


1.0 The Capacity For Offices In London 3

1.1 Ten Years Of Monitoring Capacity 3

1.2 Office Costs In London – A “Deregulated” Planning Regime 5


2.0 Methodology 11


3.0 From Employment Projections To Floorspace Need 13

3.1 The Forecasts 13

3.2 Borough Projections 17

3.3 Projections For Financial & Business Services Employment 19

3.4 Applying Employment Denisty 22

3.5 The Need For Additional Office Space 23


4.0 The Measurement Gain To Stock In The Office Development Pipeline 27

4.1 The Theory 27

    1. Calculation Of Future Gain To Office Stock

– Starting From 2001 27

4.3 Raw Data To Calculate To Stock From Mid 2001 31

4.3.1 Developments Under Construction 31

4.3.2 Developments With Planning Permission, Construction
Not Started At Mid 2001 31


4.3.3 Planning Applications Submitted, Yet To Be Determined 32

4.3.4 Potential Developments Where A Planning Application Has
Not Been Submitted 36



5.0 Office Capacity In London At Mid 2001 37

5.1 The Headline Numbers 37

5.2 Is This The Right Space? 41

5.3 Is This The Place? 44

5.4 Is It Deliverable? 44

5.4.1 Market Conditions – Location 45

5.4.2 Vacant Possession 46

5.4.3 The Developer (s) Is Working Up A Bigger
Office Scheme 47


      1. The Office Permission has been Superseded by a Higher

Value use, Typically Residential or Hotels 47

5.5 Is It Deliverable – Conclusion 49


6.0 The Development Potential Of Sites Which Do Hot Have Planning
Permission In Central London And Docklands 52


6.1 Summary Data 52

6.2 Planning Applications 52

6.3 Pre-Application Sites 53


7.0 Outer London 64


LONDON OFFICE POLICY REVIEW 2001


1.0 THE CAPACITY FOR OFFICES IN LONDON


1.1 Ten Years of Monitoring Capacity


At the heart of this study lies a simple question. Does London have sufficient office buildings and development land to meet the needs of occupiers over the fifteen years from 2001 to 2016?


It is this issue which has been at the heart of the monitoring exercise which we have undertaken for London’s strategic planners since the first London Office Policy Review (LOPR) was published in 1992. In each study we have examined current and potential supply and how it compares with historic and forecast demand. Market circumstances have changed dramatically over the ten years (Table 1).


TABLE 1 – OFFICE CAPACITY IN CENTRAL LONDON AND DOCKLANDS: 1992, 1999 AND 2001 COMPARED


Factor

Mid-1992

End-1999

End-2001

Under Construction

3.9 m sq ft

16.5 m sq ft

22.5 m sq ft

Availability

31.4 m sq ft

10.9 m sq ft

10.2 m sq ft

Availability Rate

16.5%

5.6%

5.1%

Take-up Year Previous

8.9 m sq ft

19.1 m sq ft

16.6 m sq ft

Rental Change Previous 12months-West End

-18%

17%

-9%

Rental Change Previous 12months-City

-31%

5%

4%

Permissions and Applications

69.1 m sq ft

41.8 m sq ft

48.8 m sq ft

Next Year Starts

2.2 m sq ft

(1993)

10.1 m sq ft

(2000)

11.0 m sq ft (Est.)

Source: LOPRs 1992/EGi London Property Research/DTZ Research
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