Peer reviewed by the Arizona Department of Commerce Economic Research Advisory Committee




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ECONOMY OF ALPINE-CONCHO-GREER AREA


January 2008

Prepared by

Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity Research

L. William Seidman Research Institute

W. P. Carey School of Business

Arizona State University

Tempe, Arizona





ECONOMY OF

ALPINE-CONCHO-GREER AREA

January 2008


Prepared by:

Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity Research

L. William Seidman Research Institute

W. P. Carey School of Business

Arizona State University

Tempe, Arizona


Peer reviewed by the Arizona Department of Commerce Economic Research Advisory Committee:



Dan Anderson

Assistant Executive Director for

Institutional Analysis

Arizona Board of Regents

Brian Cary

Corporate Economist

Strategic Economic Services

SRP

Lisa Danka

Assistant Deputy Director, Finance and Investment
Arizona Department of Commerce


Kent Ennis

Deputy Director

Arizona Department of Commerce


Wayne Fox

Director, Bureau of Business and

Economic Research

Northern Arizona University


James B. Nelson

Economic Development Manager

Salt River Project


William P. Patton, PhD

Senior Research Economist

Economic & Business Research Center

The University of Arizona


Elliott D. Pollack

Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

Brad Steen

Chief Economist

Arizona Department of Transportation



© 2008 by the Arizona Department of Commerce. This document may be reproduced without restriction provided it is reproduced accurately, is

not used in a misleading context, and the author and the Arizona Department of Commerce are given appropriate recognition.


This report was prepared for the Arizona Department of Commerce with funding from the Commerce and Economic Development Commission.

Elements of this report may be presented independently elsewhere at the author's discretion. Inquiries should be directed to the Office of Strategic Research, Arizona Department of Commerce, (602) 771-1100.


The Arizona Department of Commerce has made every reasonable effort to assure the accuracy of the information contained herein, including peer and/or

technical review. However, the contents and sources upon which it is based are subject to changes, omissions and errors and the Arizona Department of

Commerce accept no responsibility or liability for inaccuracies that may be present. THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL

PURPOSES ONLY. THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PRESENTS THE MATERIAL IN THIS REPORT WITHOUT IT OR ANY OF

ITS EMPLOYEES MAKING ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND

FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR ASSUMING ANY LEGAL LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACCURACY,

COMPLETENESS, OR USEFULNESS OF ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, PRODUCT, OR PROCESS DISCLOSED, OR REPRESENTING THAT

ITS USE WOULD NOT INFRINGE PRIVATELY OWNED RIGHTS. THE USER ASSUMES THE ENTIRE RISK AS TO THE ACCURACY AND THE

USE OF THIS DOCUMENT AND ANY RELATED OR LINKED DOCUMENTS

ECONOMY OF THE ALPINE-CONCHO-GREER AREA

(ZIP CODES 85920, 85924, 85927, 85930, 85932 AND 85940)


Agriculture and wood products help drive the Alpine-Concho-Greer area economy. Seasonal residents and tourists also contribute. Government provides the most employment of any sector in the area.

Six zip codes are used as an approximation for the Alpine-Concho-Greer area, which consists of the unincorporated portion of southern Apache County — one of four unincorporated areas in the Plateau region of Arizona. According to the 2000 decennial census, this unincorporated area consists of 2,012 square miles and had 3,731 residents. Less than 10 percent of the residents lived in the one Census Designated Place: McNary. The 2004 population of the Alpine-Concho-Greer area, as defined by these zip codes, is estimated at 3,854.

THE ECONOMY IN 2004




Total Employment


Total employment in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area is estimated to have been approximately 525 in 2004. Total employment was a low 135 per 1,000 residents — approximately 70 percent less than the national and state averages, and in the lowest quartile of 37 Arizona unincorporated areas.

The demographics of residents of the Alpine-Concho-Greer area contributed to this low per capita figure. According to the 2000 census, a much lower-than-average percentage of the working-age population were part of the labor force and the unemployment rate was high.

Agriculture and Government


Agriculture largely is a basic activity that includes agricultural support activities as well as farming and ranching. Agriculture employment in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area zip codes in 2004 is estimated to have been between 25 and 50. Agriculture’s employment per capita was approximately 75 percent higher than the national and state averages. Excess employment was less than 25.

The government sector represents a mix of basic and nonbasic activities. Most federal government employment (both civilian and military) is basic to both the community and the state. State government employment may be basic to the community, but is it not basic to the state. Similarly, county government and community college employment may be basic to the community (for example, a portion of the employment at the county seat is basic in that some workers serve other communities in the county), but not to the county or the state. Other local government — municipal, tribal, school district and special district — only rarely is basic to a community.

Government employed approximately 225 in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area in 2004, the most of the 20 sectors. However, government employment per 1,000 residents was only 53 in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area— 19 to 28 percent less than the national and state averages.

Four school districts employed a total of nearly 125, with the Concho and McNary districts being among the area’s largest employers with between 25 and 50 employees each. The federal government employed about 50, mostly at the National Forest Service.


Nonagriculture Private-Sector Economy

Nonagriculture private-sector employment in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area was approximately 250 in 2004. Employment was a very low 66 per 1,000 residents — approximately 80 percent less than the national and state averages, and in the lowest quartile of Arizona unincorporated areas.

Employment estimates for 2004 for the broad sectors of the Alpine-Concho-Greer area economy are shown in Table 1. Other than government, construction provided the most employment. In addition to agriculture, per capita employment was above the national average in construction (see the “location quotient relative to nation” column of the table). Construction employed marginally more than if the sector’s per capita employment had been equal to the national per capita average (see the “excess employment relative to nation” column of the table).

Other than agriculture, the Alpine-Concho-Greer area did not have excess employment in any largely basic sector. Employment was slight in mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing. Even the tourism-related accommodation and food services sector had a low location quotient. More generally, the location quotient was less than 0.5 in 15 of the 20 sectors.

More sectorally detailed data show that 10 industries provided excess employment of at least 5 in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area, three of which have a basic component (see Table 2). Two wood products manufacturing industries are on the list. The sawmill was one of three establishments reported by the Census Bureau to employ between 20 and 49 in 2004. The cafeterias and buffets industry presumably serves tourists. (These data appear to understate the impact of tourism because the employment data are collected during the week of March 12, while the tourist season primarily is in the summer.)

The other industries in Table 2 largely serve the local population. However, a small portion is basic in some industries, particularly single-family housing construction, due to sales to seasonal residents. Forty-five percent of the housing units in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area counted in the 2000 census were used seasonally, compared to a national share of 3 percent and a state share of less than 7 percent. A single-family general contractor employed between 20 and 49; the other establishment of this size was a home for the elderly.

Agriculture and wood products help drive the Alpine-Concho-Greer area economy. Seasonal residents and tourists also contribute.

Alpine-Concho-Greer Area v. Comparison Areas


Employment per 1,000 residents in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area in 2004 was 56 percent less than the regional average. The area’s per capita employment was the second lowest in the Plateau region, exceeding only the Pine-Tonto Basin-Young area. In the nonagriculture private sector, employment per 1,000 residents in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area in 2004 was 68 percent less than the regional average. The Fort Apache Reservation and the Pine-Tonto Basin-Young area had lesser figures.

Average nonfarm private-sector payroll per employee in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area in 2004 was a low $17,200 — 53 percent less than the national average, 46 percent less than the state average, and 25 percent less than the regional average. This was the fourth-lowest figure in the region, ahead of St. Johns, Taylor, and the Pine-Tonto Basin-Young area.

The Alpine-Concho-Greer area had no employment in seven of the 20 sectors. The area’s location quotient ranked at or below average in the remaining sectors.

TABLE 1


WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR

Alpine-Concho-Greer Area (Zip Codes 85920, 85924, 85927, 85930, 85932 and 85940), 2004











Relative to Nation

Relative to Arizona

Sector

Number of Establishments

Employment

Location Quotient

Excess Employment

Location Quotient

Excess Employment

TOTAL


97

518

0.28

0

0.31

0

AGRICULTURE

11

41

1.72

17

1.78

18

GOVERNMENT

11

225

0.72

0

0.81

0

TOTAL, NONAGRICULTURE PRIVATE SECTOR

75

252

0.17

0

0.19

0

Mining

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Utilities

3

6

0.67

0

0.81

0

Construction

22

92

1.05

4

0.75

0

Manufacturing

2

34

0.19

0

0.31

0

Wholesale Trade

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Retail Trade

4

11

0.05

0

0.05

0

Transportation and Warehousing

3

4

0.08

0

0.09

0

Information

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Finance and Insurance

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

8

15

0.56

0

0.52

0

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

8

10

0.10

0

0.13

0

Management of Companies and Enterprises

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Administrative, Support, Waste Management, Remediation Services

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Educational Services

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Health Care and Social Assistance

4

31

0.15

0

0.19

0

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

1

1

0.05

0

0.04

0

Accommodation and Food Services

16

44

0.31

0

0.30

0

Other Services (except public administration)

2

4

0.05

0

0.07

0

Unclassified Establishments

2

1

1.80

1

2.93

1


Source: Nonagriculture private sector estimated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Zip Business Patterns 2004. Agricultural production employees, most government employees, railroad employees, self-employed individuals and employees of private households are not included in this data source. The agriculture and government sectors are estimated — see Chapter I for details. The concept of establishment for agriculture and government differs from that used for the nonagriculture private sector.

TABLE 2

NONAGRICULTURE PRIVATE-SECTOR INDUSTRIES WITH EXCESS WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT OF AT LEAST 5*


Alpine-Concho-Greer Area (Zip Codes 85920, 85924, 85927, 85930, 85932 and 85940), 2004











Relative to Nation

Relative to Arizona

Industry

Number of Establishments

Employment

Location Quotient

Excess Employment

Location Quotient

Excess Employment

New single-family general contractors

5

44

7.50

38

5.26

35

Sawmills

1

28

21.28

27

528.03

28

Homes for the elderly

1

26

7.15

22

6.58

22

Site preparation contractors

1

12

3.31

8

2.87

8

Residential remodelers

4

10

3.54

7

5.11

8

All other specialty trade contractors

3

9

3.28

6

1.59

3

Prefabricated wood building manufacturing

1

6

18.52

6

16.70

6

Water supply & irrigation systems

3

6

12.10

5

6.68

5

Cafeterias, buffets, & grill buffets

1

6

3.83

5

3.03

4

Lessors of residential buildings & dwellings

2

8

1.91

4

2.70

5


* Relative to either the national or Arizona average


Note: Those entries in bold with a gray background have a high proportion of sales to customers outside the region and are considered basic (export) economic activities. Those not in bold with a gray background have a moderate proportion of sales to non-residents. Other industries largely serve local residents.


Source: Estimated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Zip Business Patterns 2004. Agricultural production employees, most government employees, railroad employees, self-employed individuals and employees of private households are not included in this data source.


Five nearby or otherwise similar unincorporated areas were selected as comparison areas. Per capita employment in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area in 2004 was the third highest of the six areas in this comparison group, Per capita nonagriculture private-sector employment was fourth highest. Average nonfarm private-sector payroll per employee also ranked fourth.

Some of the export sectors are shown in Chart 1. The location quotient in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area was the highest of the group in agriculture. Location quotients were relatively low in the remaining sectors (below 0.35).

CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY BETWEEN 2001 AND 2004


The change in employment between 2001 and 2004 in the Alpine-Concho-Greer area is misleading since it is due to the Census Bureau’s changing of the zip code in which the Hon-Dah Casino was placed (in 2001, it was in one of the Alpine-Concho-Greer area’s zip codes, but in 2004 it was in the Pinetop zip code). However, employment in the area fell even after excluding this.

Some of the sectoral location quotients changed substantially between 2001 and 2004 (see Table 3). The figure for accommodation and food services fell even after excluding the casino, due to a loss in the hotels and motels industry. A decrease was measured in the arts, entertainment and recreation sector. A small amount of excess employment was lost in construction. Gains were registered in real estate and rental and utilities.


CHART 1


LOCATION QUOTIENTS IN 2004

Selected Sectors in Alpine-Concho-Greer Area and Comparison Areas


Note: The location quotient for accommodation and food services is 4.2 in Grand Canyon.


* Professional, scientific and technical services


Source: Estimated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Zip Business Patterns 2004. The agriculture sector was separately estimated — see Chapter I for details.

TABLE 3


2001-TO-2004 CHANGE IN WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR

Alpine-Concho-Greer Area (Zip Codes 85920, 85924, 85927, 85930, 85932 and 85940)











Relative to Nation

Relative to Arizona

Sector

Number of Establishments

Employment

Location Quotient

Excess Employment

Location Quotient

Excess Employment

TOTAL, NONFARM PRIVATE SECTOR

17

-845

-0.56

0

-0.61

0

Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Agricultural Support Services

0

-6

-2.51

-6

-4.60

-6

Mining

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Utilities

1

2

0.25

0

0.31

0

Construction

5

-3

-0.06

-5

-0.05

0

Manufacturing

0

11

0.08

0

0.14

0

Wholesale Trade

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Retail Trade

-4

-23

-0.12

0

-0.13

0

Transportation and Warehousing

2

2

0.04

0

0.05

0

Information

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Finance and Insurance

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

6

12

0.44

0

0.42

0

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

6

7

0.07

0

0.10

0

Management of Companies and Enterprises

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Administrative, Support, Waste Management, Remediation Services

-1

-2

-0.02

0

-0.01

0

Educational Services

0

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

Health Care and Social Assistance

3

23

0.11

0

0.14

0

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

-2

-23

-0.97

-1

-0.93

0

Accommodation and Food Services

1

-833

-6.36

-745

-5.73

-731

Other Services (except public administration)

0

-6

-0.08

0

-0.10

0

Unclassified Establishments

17

-845

-0.56

0

-0.61

0


Source: Nonagriculture private sector estimated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Zip Business Patterns 2004 and 2001. Agricultural production employees, most government employees, railroad employees, self-employed individuals and employees of private households are not included in this data source. The agriculture and government sectors are estimated — see Chapter I for details. The concept of establishment for agriculture and government differs from that used for the nonagriculture private sector.





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