Revised and Resubmitted to Journal of Climate November 2005 Abstract




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2) Effects of Seasonal Cycle and Intraseasonal Variability



Most of the earlier studies of the Indian Ocean aimed at understanding the seasonal characteristics of the northern Indian Ocean (e.g. McCreary et al. 1993). This is mainly because the response to seasonally reversing monsoonal winds is the dominant mode of Indian Ocean variability. The Somali Current, Yoshida-Wyrtki jets, circulations in the Bay of Bengal (cf. Shetye et al. 1996) and the Arabian Sea, and currents along the Indonesian coast were prominently addressed in those studies. For an extensive review of the monsoon ocean circulation, readers are referred to Schott and McCreary (2001). Below we focus on the processes that are most relevant to the IOD.


The distinct seasonal cycle of the tropical Indian Ocean is composed of annual and semiannual signals in response to monsoonal winds (Schott and McCreary 2001). Along the Somali coast in the northwestern Indian Ocean, the winds are southwesterly in boreal summer and northeasterly in boreal winter. This seasonal cycle of wind contains a semiannual component because of the skewness of the annual march. The most striking feature of semiannual cycle in the ocean is the equatorial Kelvin waves manifested as the Yoshida-Wyrtki jet (Yoshida 1959; Wyrtki 1973; O’Brien and Hurlburt 1974). Based on climatology of relatively sparse observational data, this eastward ocean jet was shown to develop during monsoon breaks of boreal spring and fall (Wyrtki 1973). Luyten and Roemmich (1982) confirmed its existence from moored current observations in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. However, availability of continuous time series of current data from the ADCP mooring site kept by JAMSTEC in the eastern Indian Ocean has recently revealed a more ubiquitous nature of the zonal jet in response to the intraseasonal variations of the wind forcing (Masumoto et al. 2004; Iskandar et al. 2004).


As mentioned earlier, the IOD is strongly locked to seasons; it develops in May, peaks in September/October and fades away in December/January. Suzuki et al. (2004b) have examined the role of seasonal monsoon in the evolution of IOD using harmonic and complex empirical orthogongal function (CEOF) analysis methods for surface and subsurface variables. The first CEOF mode of subsurface heat content variability is composed of annual and semiannual signals associated with the equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves. The annual signal is generated off the coast of Somali by the open ocean upwelling/downwelling associated with the annual cycle of the Indian monsoon. The semiannual signal is partly generated by the seasonal asymmetry in the annual cycle of the Indian monsoon off Somalia and partly generated by equatorial zonal winds during the monsoon breaks. The interannual variability of this CEOF mode influences the IOD evolution; the variance of the first mode is reduced when IOD events occur (Suzuki et al. 2004b). This suggests an interesting link between the IOD and the Indian monsoon through equatorial oceanic processes. The annual signal of the second subsurface mode captures the subsurface IOD events. The semiannual component of the second mode weakens during the IOD events and thus provides a favorable precondition for the IOD evolution.


The intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the Indian Ocean shows pronounced seasonality with the strongest activity along the equator in boreal winter and spring (Madden and Julian 1994; Gualdi and Navarra 1998). The role of such intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) in triggering and terminating El Niño events has been discussed widely (Luther et al. 1983; Kessler et al. 1995; Takayabu et al. 1999 etc.). Many studies linked the ISO activity in the tropical Indian Ocean to the active and break monsoon conditions over the Indian subcontinent (e.g. Madden and Julian 1994; Sikka and Gadgil 1980; Sperber et al. 2000; Sengupta and Ravicandran 2001; Sengupta et al. 2001; Vecchi and Harrison 2003). Since the ISO originates in the tropical Indian Ocean, the role of ISO in the IOD evolution needs to be discussed more. In a recent article, Rao and Yamagata (2004) have examined the possible link between the ISO activity and the IOD termination using multiple datasets. They observed strong 30-60 day oscillations of equatorial zonal winds prior to the termination of all IOD events, except for the events of 1982 and 1997 (Fig. 18). This may be a reason for the 1997 IOD event to last until early February 1998 instead of a usual termination around December. Typically strong westerlies associated with the ISO excite anomalous downwelling Kelvin waves that terminate the coupled processes in the eastern Indian Ocean by deepening the thermocline in the east as discussed by Fischer et al. (2004) for the 1994 IOD event. Gualdi et al. (2003) suggested that the anomalously high ISO activity in the northern summer of 1974 (Lorenc 1984) might explain the aborted IOD event in the same year. The interaction between intraseasonal activity and development of IOD events was also simulated by their SINTEX CGCM.


The well-known Yoshida-Wyrtki jet originally discovered by climatological analysis of ship drift data may be also viewed as an oceanic response to ISO locked to monsoon break seasons. As already mentioned, Masumoto et al. (2004) demonstrated more ubiquitous nature of the oceanic ISO activity; the Kelvin waves in the equatorial Indian Ocean have strong variances in their intraseasonal periodicity. In normal years, the ISO is more active in the central and eastern Indian Ocean. This may explain the difference between Luyten and Roemmich (1982)’s observations in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and that of Masumoto et al. (2004). Han (2004) observed dominant spectral peaks at 90 days and 30-60 days in the sea level anomalies. From data and stand-alone ocean model simulations, she demonstrated that the 90 days variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean results from the propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves forced by winds. Since the amplitude of winds in the particular band is weaker compared to that of the 30-60 day winds, she suggests that the selective 90-day oceanic mode is due to the resonant response of the 2nd baroclinic mode to the weaker 90-day winds. In the southern Indian Ocean thermocline dome, recent satellite observations detected pronounced intraseasonal SST variability in boreal winter—in fact strongest of the entire Indo-Pacific warm pool (Saji et al. 2004). These intraseasonal SST anomalies are shown to be associated with large anomalies of surface wind and precipitation in the ITCZ. These intraseasonal phenomena in the Indian Ocean are important not only in understanding the complicated scale interactions in the basin but also in designing an effective observational network for predicting IOD events (cf. Masumoto et al. 2004).


e. Summary

 The Indian Ocean climate study has become very active since the discovery of IOD (IOZM) during the initial phase of CLIVAR. Some major findings are summarized as follows:

1) The IOD which is locked to boreal summer and fall seasons is shown to be an intrinsic ocean-atmosphere coupled mode; associated with anomalies of surface winds and SST, subsurface ocean dynamics play an important role in the evolution of IOD. Most of existing CGCMs are successful in reproducing most features of the IOD.

2) The IOD is seen to be significantly correlated to the Pacific ENSO. However, this correlation coefficient confirms 30% of co-occurrences of those two phenomena rather than one’s dependence on the other. Nevertheless, those co-occurrences are expected to affect the predictability of those two climate modes and their teleconnections.

3) The scale interaction between the IOD and ocean-atmosphere variabilities of seasonal-to-intraseasonal scales in the Indian Ocean is seen to affect the IOD evolution. For example, the intraseasonal disturbances cause unusual abortion of some of the IOD events.

 

These findings at dawn of IOD research are quite encouraging though there still remain several unresolved issues as follows:


1) It is yet unclear what triggers the initial wind and SST anomalies of IOD and how much of those are intrinsic to the Indian Ocean. The interaction between ENSO and IOD during the co-occurring years and its possible effect on the predictability of those two climate modes and their teleconnections are not clearly understood. Perhaps their interaction also affects the sub-surface variability in both basins that in turn influences low-frequency variabilities on decadal to longer time scales. This needs to be investigated using available instrument/proxy data and CGCM results.

2) The interaction between intraseasonal disturbances and IOD is to be understood further. It is unclear how IOD could modulate the ISD activity by changing oceanic and atmospheric processes on diurnal to seasonal scales.

3) The heat balance in the tropical Indian Ocean is important for the decadal modulation of the IOD. Further research is necessary to clarify roles of the Indonesian throughflow and the tropical-subtropical interaction in the decadal variability of IOD.

 


5. Future Challenges

As the scope and dimension of CLIVAR research have expanded considerably beyond focusing merely on the study of ENSO, our appreciation of the basic role of the tropical ocean in climate has grown from adiabatic wave adjustment of the equatorial thermocline to a broad spectrum of ocean processes, including mixed layer dynamics, to tropical-extratropical exchange, and to interaction between tropical ocean circulation and MOC. In this review, we have touched upon some new ideas on how different oceanic processes can be at work for different climatic phenomena that take place at various time scales in each of the tropical basins. For example, at seasonal-to-interannual time scales, the Atlantic meridional mode involves primarily ocean mixed layer dynamics. At the same time scale, the Pacific ENSO, the Atlantic zonal mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole all involve, perhaps at some different level, wave adjustment of the tropical thermocline. At decadal or longer time scales, the coupled variability in the Pacific may involve tropical-extratropical exchange, whereas in the tropical Atlantic interaction between tropical ocean circulation and MOC may also come into play. Although many of these ideas are in early stages of development and further examination and refinement are required, it remains indisputable that ocean-atmosphere interaction is most intense and active over the tropical oceans. The important question concerning the role of the tropical oceans in climate is how the information (heat, momentum, water) absorbed by the ocean from the atmosphere can be sequestered below the surface, carried around the ocean while mixing with the surrounding water masses, and eventually brought back to the atmosphere as tropical SSTs at a later time and possibly at a different location. The processes involved are enormously complex and our current understanding is inadequate to quantify much of the detailed physics, particularly at decadal or longer time scales. The crucial role of mixing parameterizations remains a key barrier to producing credible model representations, especially at these long timescales. An improved understanding of these processes is vital to our understanding of the predictability of climate fluctuations in the tropical coupled system, as the long-term memory of these climate fluctuations resides in the oceans.


In the Pacific, the advancement of our understanding of ENSO has laid a theoretical basis for its predictability where oceanic memory associated with adiabatic wave adjustment of the equatorial thermocline plays a fundamental role. The central remaining issue is our inability to come to grips with the issue of a predictability limit for ENSO. Is the inability of present generation models to adequately forecast beyond a few seasons due to an inherent limit of predictability or merely the shortcomings of our models and observing system? The tantalizing results of Chen et al. (2004) of predictability of up to 2 years indicate that more work may well pay off in improved predictions. At present, we have a number of competing theories for what determines the predictability, a number of coupled GCMs that have serious internal deficiencies and an observing system and assimilation methodology that is still under development. The early hope that ENSO prediction was a "solved" problem has not been fulfilled, but neither has it been demonstrated to be intractable.


Related to the question of ENSO predictability is the issue of decadal variation in the tropical ocean. Are there low frequency modes of variability arising from extra-tropical sources that do not interact with a separate ENSO mode, or is the interaction direct and strong? The work of Yeh and Kirtman (2004) indicates that a coupled GCM favors the first interpretation. But an examination of their results reveals that over short (50 year) periods there may appear a very high correlation between ENSO variability and the (independent) low frequency mode. This implies that existing observational records may be woefully insufficient to resolve the issue.


The general concept of the STCs, and the observational record of their large scale structure seem consistent, and monitoring of their variation has been demonstrated (McPhaden and Zhang 2002). What remains, however, is the examination of the western boundary currents and their variation. If the changes in meridional transport within the ocean interior are counteracted by variations in the western boundary current transport, the net effect on the tropical warm water balance may be unaffected. Observations and model studies indicate that the low latitude western boundary currents vary (Qu and Lukas 2003, Kim et al. 2004) including a change in the latitude of bifurcation, that may indicate changes in the distribution of water between that flowing to the equator versus that recirculating within the subtropical gyres. As mentioned above, a theoretical treatment of the baroclinic structure of the western boundary current is lacking.


An interesting study using the adjoint modeling technique probed the question of what perturbations in the subtropical thermocline were most effective at changing the equatorial thermal structure (Galanti and Tziperman (2003). They found that baroclinic instability near the subtropical gyre boundary appeared as the leading effect, indicating that the role of eddies in mixing potential vorticity may have a significant impact on the simulation of the equatorial cold tongue by altering the PV pathways. A consideration here is whether the level of baroclinic activity is a climate scale variable — does it change on decadal time scales — or is it a stationary process that simply adds complexity to the ventilated thermocline theory.


Aside from the lack of adequate data, our ability to tackle the difficult issue concerning the relationship between Pacific interdecadal variability and ENSO has been hampered by large biases in coupled climate models. It has been a long-standing problem that the simulated equatorial cold tongue in the Pacific is excessively cold, and extends too far west along the equator but is not wide enough in the meridional direction while the Atlantic cold tongue is not well developed in coupled simulations (e.g., Davey et al. 2002). Maintaining a realistic thermocline structure along the equator in coupled climate models has also been a challenge. This has greatly undermined our ability to identify and examine real physical processes responsible for changes at decadal or longer time scales, as these changes are relatively small and the processes are closely linked to those that determine the mean state of the coupled system. While atmospheric forcing and ocean-atmosphere coupling issues certainly contribute to model deficiencies, much of the uncertainty can be laid to ocean processes. The Pacific Upwelling and Mixing Physics (PUMP; Kessler et al 2004) program aims to address this cold tongue bias issue in the tropical Pacific. It focuses on the interaction of mixing and upwelling in the strongly-sheared environment of the equatorial undercurrent, particularly in the region in the east, where the thermocline surfaces. Field measurements of microstructure, turbulent dissipation, and estimates of the larger scale context for the mixing processes will be combined with a hierarchy of process and climate-scale models to provide the necessary observational guidance for developing model parameterizations of mixing in this critical region. PUMP combined with the enhanced backbone ocean observational network, such as TAO/TRITON, Argo Profiling Floats, and satellite observations, will allow us to further validate the importance of STCs and related oceanic processes in ENSO and Pacific interdecadal climate variability.


The research during the early years of CLIVAR has made it more evident that predicting ENSO related SST variability in the tropical Pacific alone is not sufficient to make an accurate seasonal climate forecast over the entire tropics, even though ENSO is recognized as the most prominent climate fluctuation at seasonal-to-interannual time scales and does contribute significantly to climate variability outside the tropical Pacific sector. Local SST anomalies in other tropical basins play an indispensable role in determining climate variability and predictability in these regions. Yet unlike ENSO where the oceanic memory mechanism associated with the delayed oscillator has been identified to be critical in determining its predictability, we have not identified a clear set of mechanisms through which the ocean dynamics contribute to the predictability of the climate fluctuations in these regions. Studies thus far suggest that the coupled air-sea feedbacks outside the tropical Pacific are generally much weaker than those associated with ENSO, and can take a variety of forms. The predictable dynamics in weakly coupled systems are generally more complex than those in strongly coupled systems that support self-sustained oscillations, and can be affected by many factors (Chang et al. 2004).


In the tropical Atlantic, the oceanic processes that influence TAV predictability are likely to be seasonally dependent. Two oceanic processes that hold special importance in the seasonal variation of the warm water formation and escape process in the upper tropical Atlantic may deserve particular attention: The first is the heat capacitor mechanism (Philander and Pacanowski 1986) that regulates the meridional heat/mass transport due to the seasonal change in the NBC/NECC system in response to the annual migration of the ITCZ and the second is the entrainment process that regulates the SST seasonal cycle in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. Simple modeling studies (e.g., Lee and Csanady 1999) suggest that both processes contribute to the mixed layer heat budget, but operate in different ways and different seasons. The former alters adiabatically the mixed layer heat storage rate through changing the depth of the mixed layer. This process is most effective during the boreal winter/spring when the entrainment halts, the NECC is weakened and the NBC flows continuously northwestward along the South American coastline. Consequently, the warm water that accumulated during the previous seasons escapes to the north from the tropics and the mixed layer depth decreases. Conceivably, this process is highly relevant to the development of the TA meridional mode, as this mode develops during these seasons and its evolution involves interaction with the ocean mixed layer. Yet, little is known about how the heat capacitor mechanism operates at interannual or longer timescales. At issue are how effective changes in the meridional heat/mass transport induced by ITCZ fluctuations at interannual or longer timescales can affect the mixed layer heat budget in the western tropical Atlantic, whether these changes are strong enough to interact with the local thermodynamic air-sea feedback in the region, and more importantly whether the heat capacitor mechanism can provide an oceanic memory that contributes to the predictability of this phenomenon.

The entrainment cooling that takes place during boreal summer contributes diabatically to the seasonal mixed layer heat budget by transporting thermocline water into the mixed layer, causing the rapid development of the cold SST. At the same time, the mixed layer deepens as the gateway for transporting the water northward is blocked by the NBC retroflection and the NECC during these seasons. This process is highly relevant to the onset and decay of the TA zonal mode that develops during the same season. However, progress in our understanding of this process in this mode is hampered by the lack of sufficient observations and the difficulty that ocean models encounter in simulating realistic variability in the equatorial Atlantic. The OGCM simulation conducted by Carton et al. (1996) yielded a correlation value of only 0.3 between the observed and simulated SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. Even some of the advanced ocean data assimilation (ODA) systems have difficulties in reproducing the ocean state in the tropical Atlantic basin. For example, the ECMWF ODA systems show considerable systematic bias in estimating the upper ocean state in the equatorial Atlantic region, even though the same system works very well in the tropical Pacific (Stockdale 2002, personal communication). Apart from the obvious reason that the upper ocean variability in the Atlantic is much weaker than that in the Pacific, deficiencies in model physics are most likely to be the blamed for poor model performance. One potential problem may be related to models’ inability to handle correctly vertical mixing in the equatorial region. During the boreal summer, the thermocline becomes very shallow in the equatorial eastern Atlantic, while the mixed layer deepens. Therefore, the thermocline water is nearly depleted. This posts a challenge for numerical models, particularly those with low vertical resolution.


At inter-decadal or longer time scales, the Atlantic Ocean plays a uniquely important role because of the potential interaction between the STCs and MOC. The intriguing modeling results (e.g., Vellinga and Wood 2002 and Dong and Sutton 2002) that show a change in MOC strength can lead to a TAV response raises the possibility that the Atlantic coupled system may be of particular importance to anthropogenic influences. The potentially relevant oceanic mechanisms include the influence of the MOC return flow on the Atlantic STC structure (e.g., Fratantoni et al. 2000; Jochum and Malanotte-Rizzoli 2001) and the “equatorial buffer” mechanism (Johnson and Marshall 2002; Yang 1999). The challenge that lies ahead is how to quantify these mechanisms. Clearly, the existing observations are hopelessly inadequate to give a full account of these mechanisms, and a much improved observational base is badly needed. The questions are: What types of observations are necessary and what the optimal design for tropical Atlantic observing system should be to effectively understand and monitor the important oceanic changes? Further modeling studies can shed light on these issues.


At the beginning of CLIVAR, a Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) was implemented with the goal of gaining understanding of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Atlantic that are relevant to regional climate variability at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. The observation data from PIRATA has proven to be extremely valuable in documenting and understanding local air-sea feedbacks in the region, despite its limited spatial coverage and time span. Discussions are currently underway on how to expand PIRATA and evolve it into a more comprehensive and focused ocean observing system that is better suited to study TAV and its predictability at various time scales. Worth mentioning is the “Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment” (TACE) which is being planned. TACE is envisioned as a program of enhanced observations and process studies with an emphasis on the eastern tropical Atlantic. The 5-year (2006-2010) program will consist of an expanded PIRATA array as the backbone observational system, and enhanced ARGO float and surface drifter coverage in the eastern tropical Atlantic region. Its aim is to quantify the importance of oceanic advection, upwelling and vertical mixing in the predictability of SST associated with the TA zonal mode in this region. The improved observations will also put us in a better position to refine our current understanding of the role of the STCs and MOC in TAV. Figure 19 shows a schematic of TACE Observational Strategy. The details on scientific issues addressed by TACE can be found in a “White Paper” by Schott et al. (2004).


Recent progress in our understanding of the ocean-atmosphere coupled variability in the Indian Ocean, together with the evolution of high-resolution CGCMs, has opened a door to a new stage of predicting IOD events and Indo-Pacific SST paterns. This rapid movement in modeling needs to be supported by an ocean observing technologies. The collective effort will contribute to societal needs of the most heavily populated region of the world.

Up to the present time, we have attempted to understand ENSO. Future research will require understanding the Indo-Pacifc climate system as a whole, made up of interacting subsystems that include ENSO, IOD, Indian Monsoon, East Asian Monsoon, land-ocean interactions and possibly other elements, all of which interact probably in a non-linear way, across a range of time-scales from intra-seasonal to decadal. Our future understanding of this complex system will require an adequate observing system that captures the essential physics of those elements and resolves all the relevant time-scales.


Compared to other two tropical oceans, the Indian Ocean has not been observed intensively. Since it is now clear that the Indian Ocean gives birth to ocean-atmsophere coupled mode of its own, this situation must be improved. As we have seen in the previous sections, Pacific ENSO plays a dominant role in determining a basin-wide pattern of SST in the Indian Ocean through changes of surface fluxes and thus influences seasonal climate conditions in countries sorrounding the Indian Ocean. However, climatic conditions of countries surrounding the Indian Ocean appear to be equally or more influenced by a regional SST structure, particularly related to IOD. This has provided policy makers as well as scientists with strong motives of introducing a systematic ocean observing system for climate prediction.


A strategy for establishing an integrated observing system in the Indian Ocean that makes use of all the available types of instrumentation is illustrated in Fig. 20. The general attributes of this sytem have been well established within the GOOS community. The observational effort has to be long term & sustained. The data streams will include complementary satellite & in situ observations. The need for resources makes multi-national support essential. There is a priority for real-time data to support seasonal climate prediction. And finally, to realize the potential for delivering societal benefits, free and open access to data and enhanced products needs to be guaranteed.


The in situ observing system envisioned in Fig. 20 shows a proposed equatorial buoy network (e.g. TRITON/TAO) as the backbone for observing the fast, upper ocean variability. The network also includes well sampled XBT lines (focused on specifc features of oceanic structure), ARGO floats, surface drifters and tide gauges. Special arrays are proposed for boundary regions. The sustained observations will provide a background for climate monitoring and process studies in key regions such as the upwelling region off Java, climate crossroads west of Australia, and the Sri Lanka dome, Arabian dome, and the southern upwelling dome to better understand how these processes play a role in the climate system and to validate how they are represented in climate models.


In the southern subtropical Indian Ocean, another dipole event is also identified in SST anomalies (Behera and Yamagata 2001; Reason 2001; Fauchereau et al. 2003; Terray et al. 2003; Suzuki et al. 2004a; Hermes and Reason 2004). To develop a field program to understand the possible link between the IOD and subtropical climate signals such as the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole is also important. Although the atmospheric surface fluxes related to modulation of the mid-latitude high play a dominant role in determining the SST signals, the southern Indian Ocean appears to contribute to the anomalous condition in tropics.


In summary, we are now at break of dawn of integrated research covering the complete Indo-Pacific climate system (Meyers et al. 2001), and of new management systems that will help society adapt to the impacts of climate driven by tropical oceans.

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