Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs




Скачать 258.34 Kb.
НазваниеEnergy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs
страница5/20
Дата24.10.2012
Размер258.34 Kb.
ТипДокументы
1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   ...   20

No Water Wars

No Water Wars- even if they are brought to the brink the past 4,500 years prove they settle disputes with peace


Doyle – 6, Alister Doyle, Environmental correspondent, Reuters, 9/17/06, “Water Wars” loom? But none in past 4,500 years” http://harowo.com/2006/09/17/water-wars-loom-but-none-in-past-4500-years/


With a steady stream of bleak predictions that "water wars" will be fought over dwindling supplies in the 21st century, battles between two Sumerian city-states 4,500 years ago seem to set a worrying precedent. But the good news, many experts say, is that the conflict between Lagash and Umma over irrigation rights in what is now Iraq was the last time two states went to war over water.Down the centuries since then, international rivals sharing waters such as the Jordan River, the Nile, the Ganges or the Parana have generally favoured cooperation over conflict. So if history can be trusted, things may stay that way. "The simple explanation is that water is simply too important to fight over," said Aaron Wolf, a professor at Oregon State University. "Nations often go to the brink of war over water and then resolve their differences."

3,600 years of waterless justification for war in the world proves that war is unlikely- even if the potential for conflict rises, it won’t actually lead to war anyway


Doyle – 6, Alister Doyle, Environmental correspondent, Reuters, 9/17/06, “Water Wars” loom? But none in past 4,500 years” http://harowo.com/2006/09/17/water-wars-loom-but-none-in-past-4500-years/


Since the war between Lagash and Umma, recorded on a stone carving showing vultures flying off with the heads of defeated Umma warriors, no wars have been fought and 3,600 international water treaties have been signed, he said. Yet politicians regularly warn that water shortages caused by surging populations and climate change could trigger conflicts this century in a world where a billion people in developing countries lack access to clean drinking water."Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future," U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in 2001. The English word "rival" even comes from the Latin "rivalis" meaning "someone sharing a river". Other experts say international "water wars" are unlikely."I don’t really expect wars over water becausethe benefits of collaboration are so great," said Frank Rijsberman, head of the International Water Management Institute (IWMI). And still others say water might be one factor in future conflicts. Achim Steiner, executive director of the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), says this is particularly true in border regions where countries share rivers."I am not somebody who believes that our third world war will be over water, but I think the potential for conflict will grow as we are faced with water scarcity," he told Reuters.

Minute risk of water war- their evidence is blown up by career-concerned journalists


Doyle – 6, Alister Doyle, Environmental correspondent, Reuters, 9/17/06, “Water Wars” loom? But none in past 4,500 years” http://harowo.com/2006/09/17/water-wars-loom-but-none-in-past-4500-years/


"If there is a war between two countries the 15th reason could be water but the first 14 reasons will have absolutely nothing to do with water," said Asit Biswas, head of the Third World Centre for Water Management in Mexico City. "But if I want to get in the media the easiest thing is to say that a water war is about to break out in the Middle East," he said. "The last war over water was thousands of years ago."

No water wars – based on faulty Malthusian arguments


Allouche 11Jeremy Allouche, Institute of Development Studies, UK, January 2011, "The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global tradestar, open," Food Policy, Volume 36, Supplement 1, January 2011, Pages S3-S8, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919210001272


The question of resource scarcity has led to many debates on whether scarcity (whether of food or water) will lead to conflict and war. The underlining reasoning behind most of these discourses over food and water wars comes from the Malthusian belief that there is an imbalance between the economic availability of natural resources and population growth since while food production grows linearly, population increases exponentially. Following this reasoning, neo-Malthusians claim that finite natural resources place a strict limit on the growth of human population and aggregate consumption; if these limits are exceeded, social breakdown, conflict and wars result. Nonetheless, it seems that most empirical studies do not support any of these neo-Malthusian arguments. Technological change and greater inputs of capital have dramatically increased labour productivity in agriculture. More generally, the neo-Malthusian view has suffered because during the last two centuries humankind has breached many resource barriers that seemed unchallengeable.


Their evidence is only alarmist – comprehensive studies disprove their impact


Allouche 11Jeremy Allouche, Institute of Development Studies, UK, January 2011, "The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global tradestar, open," Food Policy, Volume 36, Supplement 1, January 2011, Pages S3-S8, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919210001272


Lessons from history: alarmist scenarios, resource wars and international relations

In a so-called age of uncertainty, a number of alarmist scenarios have linked the increasing use of water resources and food insecurity with wars. The idea of water wars (perhaps more than food wars) is a dominant discourse in the media (see for example Smith, 2009), NGOs (International Alert, 2007) and within international organizations (UNEP, 2007). In 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon declared that ‘water scarcity threatens economic and social gains and is a potent fuel for wars and conflict’ (Lewis, 2007). Of course, this type of discourse has an instrumental purpose; security and conflict are here used for raising water/food as key policy priorities at the international level.

In the Middle East, presidents, prime ministers and foreign ministers have also used this bellicose rhetoric. Boutrous Boutros-Gali said; ‘the next war in the Middle East will be over water, not politics’ (Boutros Boutros-Gali in Butts, 1997, p. 65). The question is not whether the sharing of transboundary water sparks political tension and alarmist declaration, but rather to what extent water has been a principal factor in international conflicts. The evidence seems quite weak. Whether by president Sadat in Egypt or King Hussein in Jordan, none of these declarations have been followed up by military action.

The governance of transboundary water has gained increased attention these last decades. This has a direct impact on the global food system as water allocation agreements determine the amount of water that can used for irrigated agriculture. The likelihood of conflicts over water is an important parameter to consider in assessing the stability, sustainability and resilience of global food systems.

None of the various and extensive databases on the causes of war show water as a casus belli. Using the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data set and supplementary data from the University of Alabama on water conflicts, Hewitt, Wolf and Hammer found only seven disputes where water seems to have been at least a partial cause for conflict (Wolf, 1998, p. 251). In fact, about 80% of the incidents relating to water were limited purely to governmental rhetoric intended for the electorate (Otchet, 2001, p. 18).



Scarcity leads to cooperation – no water wars


Allouche 11Jeremy Allouche, Institute of Development Studies, UK, January 2011, "The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global tradestar, open," Food Policy, Volume 36, Supplement 1, January 2011, Pages S3-S8, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919210001272


As shown in The Basins At Risk (BAR) water event database, more than two-thirds of over 1800 water-related ‘events’ fall on the ‘cooperative’ scale (Yoffe et al., 2003). Indeed, if one takes into account a much longer period, the following figures clearly demonstrate this argument. According to studies by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), organized political bodies signed between the year 805 and 1984 more than 3600 water-related treaties, and approximately 300 treaties dealing with water management or allocations in international basins have been negotiated since 1945 ([FAO, 1978] and [FAO, 1984]).

The fear around water wars have been driven by a Malthusian outlook which equates scarcity with violence, conflict and war. There is however no direct correlation between water scarcity and transboundary conflict. Most specialists now tend to agree that the major issue is not scarcity per se but rather the allocation of water resources between the different riparian states (see for example [Allouche, 2005], [Allouche, 2007] and [Rouyer, 2000]). Water rich countries have been involved in a number of disputes with other relatively water rich countries (see for example India/Pakistan or Brazil/Argentina). The perception of each state’s estimated water needs really constitutes the core issue in transboundary water relations. Indeed, whether this scarcity exists or not in reality, perceptions of the amount of available water shapes people’s attitude towards the environment (Ohlsson, 1999). In fact, some water experts have argued that scarcity drives the process of co-operation among riparians ([Dinar and Dinar, 2005] and [Brochmann and Gleditsch, 2006]).

In terms of international relations, the threat of water wars due to increasing scarcity does not make much sense in the light of the recent historical record. Overall, the water war rationale expects conflict to occur over water, and appears to suggest that violence is a viable means of securing national water supplies, an argument which is highly contestable.



Water shortages do not cause wars – limited to local conflicts


Allouche 11Jeremy Allouche, Institute of Development Studies, UK, January 2011, "The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global tradestar, open," Food Policy, Volume 36, Supplement 1, January 2011, Pages S3-S8, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919210001272


Conclusion

This article has provided an overview of the current and future challenges in terms of global food and water systems. The major focus of the argument has been on how resource scarcity is a contested and subjective concept which cannot fully explain conflict, political instability or food insecurity. The politics of inequality and allocation are much more important variables in explaining water and food insecurity. This is particularly true for conflicts. Although resource scarcity has been linked to international wars, the current data shows that most conflict over water and food are much more local. But there again, although resource scarcity can be linked to malnutrition, hunger and water insecurity, in the majority of cases, water and food insecurity are rarely about competition over resources but rather reflect the politics of allocation and inequality. In this respect, war and conflicts aggravate these insecurities not just on the short term but also on the long term.

At the global level, food security has considerably improved and provides the means to address these insecurities. Trade can certainly be seen as a way to address access for countries that are under severe stress in terms of food and water and provides logical grounds for questioning the various water and food wars scenarios. Although global trade and technological innovation are key drivers in providing stable and resilient global systems, the most destabilizing global water-related threat is increasing food prices and hunger. Overall, decision-makers should show greater concern for the human beings who make their living in agriculture, so that those at risk of livelihood and food-security failures, especially under anticipated scenarios of climate change, will be less deprived. Current debates linked to global food security and climate fail to address the political dimension of resource scarcity which is primarily linked to the politics of inequality, gender and power.

1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   ...   20

Похожие:

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconThe government of India is promoting nuclear energy as a solution to the country’s future energy needs and is embarking on a massive nuclear energy expansion

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconEnergy conversion means that energy can change form. For example, wind energy can be converted to electrical energy to run a motor and then into mechanical
«конверсия» или «трансформация» энергии. Например, энергия ветра может быть превращеня в электрическую энергию, используемую для...
Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconInvestigation and design of a self-sustained energy mini-Scale Energy Generation System

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconEnergy se r vices providing Effective Rural Energy Services to the Poor

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconPerpetual Motion vs. “Working Machines Creating Energy from Nothing” With a Discussion of Perpetual Extraction and Emission of Real em energy from the Vacuum

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconZaporozhye region is considered to be one of the most attractive regions of Ukraine for investing due to its industrial potential, natural resources, own energy

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconThe Energy Solution Revolution

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconWind energy developments in the eu p 7

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconM. E. Energy engineering semester I

Energy/Resources Long timeframe to solving energy needs iconEnergy intensity and its determinants

Разместите кнопку на своём сайте:
Библиотека


База данных защищена авторским правом ©lib.znate.ru 2014
обратиться к администрации
Библиотека
Главная страница