Executive Summary




НазваниеExecutive Summary
страница1/76
Дата12.10.2012
Размер3.09 Mb.
ТипДокументы
  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   ...   76

The Millennium Project


Future Global Ethical Issues

(Excerpt from the State of the Future report)


Executive Summary

  1. Introduction

  2. Study Design

  3. Demographics

  4. Round 1 Results and Preparing for Round 2

4.1 Ethical Issue

4.2 Ethical Principles

4.3 Selection of Candidate Ethical Issues for Round 2

  1. Importance and Resolution Potential of Ethical Issues

  2. Ethical Principles and their Spread

  3. Respondents Comments

  4. Group Differences

8.1 Gender Analysis

8.2 Regional Analysis

8.3 Cluster Analysis

  1. Conclusions


Appendices

A1. Round 1 Comments

A2. Round 2 Comments

A3. Categorization of Ethical Issues

A4. Round 1 Questionnaire

A5. Round 2 Questionnaire


Executive Summary



In the period from August 2004 to July 2005, the Millennium Project conducted a study of emerging global ethical issues and principles by which such issues might be resolved in the future. The scope was global and the time horizon stretched to 2050. More specifically, the purposes of this study were to:

  • Identify important, novel ethical issues of global scale that might come on the scene within the next 50 years

  • Assess the relative importance of these issues and the likelihood of their resolution

  • Articulate the key principles that might be used in the solution of such ethical issues.


For all of these, we hoped to identify the similarities and differences in perceptions among the subgroups participating in the study, for example, people from various regions and men and women.


In the first round questionnaire the respondents were given illustrative statements about potential ethical issues and were asked to reword the statements if they thought the statements could be improved. The statements were presented in three time periods: 2005- 2010, 2010- 2025, and 2025-2050. The respondents were also asked to add similar issues in all three time periods that seemed significant and new. In addition, in an open-ended question, respondents were asked to provide statements of principles by which such issues might be resolved in the future (the Golden Rule is an example).


The volume of the responses to the Round 1 questionnaire was almost overwhelming; suggestions for over 1,200 ethical issues were received from about 200 respondents.


The second round 2 was crafted on the basis of the Round 1 responses. As before, it had two major components: the first dealt with the issues and the second the principles for resolution. A small subset of key issues was selected from and respondents were asked to judge the relative importance and chances for resolution of these issues. In the second portion, some resolution principles from Round 1 were listed and respondents were asked to judge how widely these principles are accepted today and might be accepted in the future.


The questionnaires were translated into several languages and were made available in hard copy and on-line: English online, Portuguese MS Word, English MS Word, Russian MS Word, Chinese MS Word, Spanish on line, French MS Word and Spanish MS Word.


Indicative of the wide interest in this work, over 300 Round 2 responses were received. In both rounds, Europe and Latin American respondents contributed about 30% of the total responses each; North American and Asian/ South Pacific respondents each comprised about 20% of the sample. Contributions from academics ran about 25% of the total in both rounds, followed by NGO’s, independent consultants, government employees, and corporate employees, who provided between 13 and 15% each.


The Round 1 analysis processes involved the following steps:


1. Editing. Some respondents were succinct in their suggestions; others were expansive. In editing we attempted to capture the essence of the longer responses in shorter phrases, and in addition to remove ambiguities that make have occurred in translation


2. Filtering. While most of the responses were of the sort we sought, there were some that fell into categories that were outside of our immediate interest. We sought the to identify ethical issues of global dimension, that were really new, had some new aspect of an existing problem or were likely to grow in magnitude in the years ahead, or were likely to have deep impact and be of broad interest. In all some 874 items of the 1,221 suggestions were used in the study.


3. Grouping. We studied the post-filter suggestions as a set and asked ourselves what principal themes were contained in answer to the open ended question we asked about future ethical issues. We found that the 874 suggestions could be grouped into the following themes:


  1. What ethical behavior should guide corporate and economic decisions?

  2. What ethical issues are involved in attempting to improve global education?

  3. What new ethical issues are implicit in policies associated with global environment?

  4. What is involved in ethical governance?

  5. What new ethical challenges stem from biotechnology and public health?

  6. How can the ethical issues raised by ownership of intellectual property be resolved?

  7. What is published or not by media raises ethical questions about censorship.

  8. What ethical issues are raised on the new frontiers of science and social behavior?

  9. What are the new questions of religion and moral philosophy?

  10. What are the ethical implications of future political issues?

  11. What ethical issues are associated with science and technology and their management?

  12. How will the ethics of social behavior change?

  13. What are the new ethical issues surrounding birth and childhood?

  14. What are the new ethical issues surrounding aging and death?

  15. What are the ethical issues of entry into space?

  16. New developments in brain science and artificial intelligence bring unique ethical issues.

  17. Is it right for people of wealth to have advantage?

18. What is a future crime?


The issues were sorted into domains; those domains that received an increasing number of suggestions over time were: brain, new frontiers, space, death, birth, the environment, and philosophy. Those domains that received a diminishing number of suggestions over time were crime, education, corporate/economy, political, and media


Some issues were suggested independently by multiple respondents; among these were:


  • Should people, corporations, or nations that are rich, be able to buy their way out of problems?

  • What ethical rules should guide intervention of a person, corporation, or nation into the affairs of others?

  • What are the ethics of aging and dying, particularly the ethics of euthanasia?

  • What issues are involved in designing humans and other living organisms?

  • Should machines have rights and what ethical issues are involved in the interactions between humans and technology?

  • What new ethical issues will arise when society goes into space?

  • What constitutes ethical or unethical behavior?

  • Is it ethical for people, corporations, or nations to create future problems or uncertainties by current actions, even if well intended?

  • Is it ethical to detain people or interfere with their lives on the basis of expectations about their future actions?

  • What is the ethical trade-offs between human rights and the need for national security, particularly preservation of privacy and freedom from search?


In the end, some 31 items were selected for further study in Round 2. This sele3ction was based on a number of factors including the frequency with which the items or similar items appeared, the ability of the item to open important discussions about global ethics, scope- that is the number of people likely to be affected by the issue, severity- that is the depth of the affect of the issue, and novelty. These were:


Between the years 2005 to 2010


  • Is it right to allow people and organizations to pollute if they pay a fee or engage in pollution trading?

  • What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people?

  • Do parents have a right to create genetically altered “designer babies?”

  • What are the ethical ways to develop applications of artificial intelligence?

  • Should religions give up the claim of certainty and/or superiority to reduce religion-related conflicts?

  • Should scientists be held personally responsible for the consequences of their research?

  • Should national sovereignty and cultural differences be allowed to prevent international intervention designed to stop widespread violence perpetrated by men against women?

  • Do we have a right to clone ourselves?


Between the years 2010 to 2025


  • Is it ethical to extend lifespan, no matter what the cost?

  • Should there be two standards for intellectual, athletic, musical, and other forms of competition: one for the un-augmented and another for those whose performance has been enhanced by drugs, bionics, genetic engineering, and/or nanobots?

  • Is it ethical to recreate extinct species?

  • Do we have the right to alter our genetic germ line so that future generations cannot inherit the potential for genetically related diseases or disabilities?

  • As the brain-machine interface becomes more sophisticated and global, do the demands of collective intelligence outweigh those associated with individual identity?

  • Should there be a code of ethics to deal with the proliferating space junk?

  • When does information pollution become a crime?

  • Would the advent of global ethical norms unduly constrain the differences among groups or the evolution of values?

  • To what degree should the rights and interests of future generations prevail in decisions of this generation?


Between the years 2025 to 2050


  • Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into a new or several new species?

  • Is it ethical for society to manage the creation of future elites who have augmented themselves with artificial intelligence and genetic engineering?

  • Is it right for humans to merge with technology, as one way to prevent technological hegemony over humanity?

  • With accelerating advances in psychoactive drugs and virtual reality, should there be limits to the pursuit of happiness?

  • Should elimination of aging be available to everyone or just to those who can afford it?

  • Is it right to pursue research that will result in the creation of intelligent technological “beings” that will have the capacity to compete with humans or other biological life forms for an ecological niche?

  • Should artificial life (life-mimicking software, sentient robots, etc.) or animals whose intelligence has been increased to near human levels, have rights?

  • Considering the economic and other consequences of an aging population, should we have the right to suicide and euthanasia?

  • Do we have a right to colonize other planets and use their resources?

  • If technology develops a mind of its own, what ethical obligations should its creator(s) have?

  • Do we have a right to genetically interfere with newborns or embryos because their genetic code shows a high probability for future violent behavior?


In Round 1, the panelists also suggested some 260 principles for the resolution of ethical issues. A subset of principles was selected for further exploration in the second round on the on basis that certain items were suggested by multiple respondents; in addition principles were drawn from the various categories, and seemed to represent ideas that particularly appropriate for further consideration. These were (with sub divisions that were later used in the Round 2 analysis):


Principles from Philosophy

Human survival as a species is the highest priority.

People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.

Make decisions which minimize (or preferably do no) harm.

Treat other people the way you would like to be treated.

Collective considerations should prevail over individual well-being; make decisions that bring the most good to the most people.

Make decisions that have universal applicability.


Principles Related to Science

Scientific research is a more reliable path to truth than religious faith.

Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans.

Human space migration is part of human evolution.

Society has the obligation to intervene in genetic evolution to avoid its pitfalls and cruelties.

Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.

Principles Related to Religion and Spirituality

Life is a divine unalterable gift.

Compassion is required for justice.

The spiritual dimension of human life is more important then the material one.

The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values.

Treat other people the way you would like to be treated.

Human beings have an obligation to mitigate suffering.


Principles Based on Policy Imperative

World interests should prevail over nation-state interests.

Collective security is more important than individual freedom.

Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy.

Care for future generations should be a major focus of today's actions.


Principles Related to Operations Research

Collective judgment is generally better than individual judgment.

Fairness underlies most successful policies.

Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness.

Consideration of equity (e.g. distribution of benefits) is essential in decision making.


Wisdom-based Principles

Harmony with nature is more important than economic progress.

Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.

Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.

The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society.

Access to education is a fundamental human right.

Precedents and tradition are important.


In Round 2, respondents were asked to provide their judgments about the significance of each issue (5= most important, 1= least) and resolution difficulty (5= most difficult, 1= least). Their judgments about the most important issues are summarized in the following tables:


2005-2010

Issue Number

Issue

Significance

Resolution

1.2

What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people?

4.233

3.997

1.5

Should religions give up the claim of certainty and/or superiority to reduce religion-related conflicts?

4.133

4.110

1.8

Do we have a right to clone ourselves?

4.023

3.897

1.3

Do parents have a right to create genetically altered “designer babies?”

4.020

3.278

1.7

Should national sovereignty and cultural differences be allowed to prevent international intervention designed to stop widespread violence perpetrated by men against women?

3.902

3.657

1.1

Is it right to allow people and organizations to pollute if they pay a fee or engage in pollution trading?

3.748

3.378

1.4

What are the ethical ways to develop applications of artificial intelligence?

3.278

2.946

1.6

Should scientists be held personally responsible for the consequences of their research?

3.249

3.053



2010-2025

Issue Number

Issue

Significance

Resolution

2.4

Do we have the right to alter our genetic germ line so that future generations cannot inherit the potential for genetically related diseases or disabilities?

4.023

3.452

2.9

To what degree should the rights and interests of future generations prevail in decisions of this generation?

3.983

3.392

2.8

Would the advent of global ethical norms unduly constrain the differences among groups or the evolution of values?

3.685

3.457

2.10

Should a person be subjected to psychological, social, or cultural mechanisms for having the propensity to commit a crime (including, for example, the use of weapons of mass destruction) even if he or she has not yet committed such an act yet?

3.684

3.668

2.5

As the brain-machine interface becomes more sophisticated and global, do the demands of collective intelligence outweigh those associated with individual identity?

3.624

3.390

2.1

Is it ethical to extend lifespan, no matter what the cost?

3.525

3.450

2.7

When does information pollution become a crime?

3.357

2.939

2.6

Should there be a code of ethics to deal with the proliferating space junk?

3.244

2.643



2025-2050

Issue Number

Issue

Significance

Resolution

3.1

Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into new species?

4.199

4.115

3.2

Is it ethical for society to create future elites, augmented with artificial intelligence and genetic engineering?

4.164

4.060

3.11

Do we have a right to genetically interfere with newborns or embryos because their genetic code shows a high probability for future violent behavior?

4.017

3.767

3.6

Is it right to create intelligent technological “beings” that can compete with humans or other biological life forms for an ecological niche?

3.953

3.814

3.8

Should we have the right to suicide and euthanasia?

3.919

3.608

3.3

Is it right for humans to merge with technology, as one way to prevent technological hegemony over humanity?

3.820

3.539

3.10

If technology develops a mind of its own, what ethical obligations should its creator's) have?

3.704

3.367

3.5

Should elimination of aging be available to everyone or just to those who can afford the treatments?

3.613

3.409



There was an extremely strong correlation between the judgments about importance and resolution, the more important the issue, the more difficult to resolve, as shown in the following chart which displays the judgments by responses from various regions in the world.





This same correlation held for the sample as a whole, and all sub groups examined including responses by both men and women and the various regions.


In Round 2, also asked respondents to evaluate ethical principles in terms of the spread around the world. Following is the list of principles.


  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   ...   76

Похожие:

Executive Summary iconThe main objectives of this Report, consisting of the executive summary, the extended summary and the full report, are

Executive Summary iconExecutive Summary

Executive Summary iconExecutive Summary

Executive Summary iconExecutive Summary

Executive Summary iconExecutive Summary

Executive Summary iconExecutive summary

Executive Summary iconExecutive summary

Executive Summary iconExecutive Summary

Executive Summary iconExecutive Summary

Executive Summary iconExecutive Summary

Разместите кнопку на своём сайте:
Библиотека


База данных защищена авторским правом ©lib.znate.ru 2014
обратиться к администрации
Библиотека
Главная страница